Northampton 1-0 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Northampton host Peterborough at Sixfields Stadium in League One (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 19 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Northampton have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Northampton's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Peterborough stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Peterborough's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Peterborough — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (last 49 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Peterborough trading profile (last 49 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 55% versus Peterborough 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 45% | Peterborough 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 0.77 xG and Peterborough 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.837 / defence 1.217 | Peterborough attack 1.306 / defence 0.741. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.148. Peterborough bring a tight defence (rating 0.741, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Northampton's projected output down. Peterborough have an above-average attack rating of 1.306, which lifts their away xG to 1.82. Northampton's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Peterborough's projected output up. Data: built from Northampton's last 3 games and Peterborough's last 49.
Result probabilities: Northampton 15% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 62%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 6.55 | Draw 4.49 | Peterborough 1.60. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Northampton 60% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, matchday 4 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 15% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Northampton 0.77 / Peterborough 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.837 / def 1.217 | Peterborough attack 1.306 / def 0.741 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Peterborough xG
45%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Northampton vs Peterborough FAQs
What time does Northampton vs Peterborough kick off?
Northampton vs Peterborough kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Peterborough?
Northampton 1 - 0 Peterborough.
Where is Northampton vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Peterborough part of?
Northampton vs Peterborough is a League One fixture (matchday 4) (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 15% chance of winning, Peterborough a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Northampton and Peterborough will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Northampton vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Northampton's attack rating (0.84) and Peterborough's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Northampton's last 3 games and Peterborough's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
15%
6.55
22%
4.49
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.59
1.82
Peterborough xG
6.55
15%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
2%
40.65
29%
3.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Northampton vs Peterborough Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Northampton and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Northampton and 1.82 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Peterborough?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Northampton come into this having played 49 games, going 23W 15D 11L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 1.69 PPG from 49 outings (26W 5D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.71 PPG, Peterborough on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Northampton's home form reads 12W 7D 6L across their last 25 home games, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 1.48 points per game from their last 25 away games (12W 1D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.61 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Peterborough in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Early Season
Peterborough
Early Season
Northampton (Home) vs Peterborough (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Northampton
Early Season
Peterborough
Early Season
❓ Northampton vs Peterborough Form FAQs
What form are Northampton and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 23W 15D 11L in their last 49 games (1.71 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 26W 5D 18L in their last 49 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Peterborough away?
Northampton's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.72 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Northampton or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Peterborough in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Mar 2024, when Peterborough won Peterborough 5-1 Northampton.
Northampton's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Northampton vs Peterborough H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Peterborough?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Northampton have won 3, Peterborough have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Northampton and Peterborough last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Northampton 1-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Peterborough?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 56%, Peterborough 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Northampton) and 56% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Northampton vs Peterborough Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Northampton and Peterborough matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Northampton's recent matches and 48% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Northampton and Peterborough matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Northampton's recent games and 56% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Peterborough matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Northampton's recent matches and 68% of Peterborough's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Northampton defy the odds to beat Peterborough 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Peterborough 1-0 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 0.77 xG and Peterborough 1.82 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Peterborough landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.84 / defence 1.22 against Peterborough attack 1.31 / defence 0.74, drawn from 3/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 15% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 62%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Northampton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 45%, Peterborough 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Peterborough's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.71 PPG, Peterborough 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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