Charlton 2-3 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port Vale make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in League One (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Charlton (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Charlton's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port Vale have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Port Vale away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Charlton's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Port Vale's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Charlton's last 10 home games and Port Vale's last 10 away games) — Charlton have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Port Vale in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended Charlton 3–2 Port Vale — a Charlton win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Port Vale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 59% versus Port Vale 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 49% | Port Vale 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.90 xG and Port Vale 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.050 / defence 1.063 | Port Vale attack 0.781 / defence 1.459. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.148. Port Vale's defence rating of 1.459 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charlton's projected output up. Port Vale's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Charlton's last 49 games and Port Vale's last 49.
Result probabilities: Charlton 60% | Draw 22% | Port Vale 18%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.68 | Draw 4.55 | Port Vale 5.42. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Charlton's last 10 home games and Port Vale's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charlton 70% (last 10 home games) | Port Vale 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, matchday 4 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 60% | Draw 22% | Port Vale 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Charlton 1.90 / Port Vale 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.050 / def 1.063 | Port Vale attack 0.781 / def 1.459 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Charlton (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Port Vale xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Port Vale FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Port Vale kick off?
Charlton vs Port Vale kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Port Vale?
Charlton 2 - 3 Port Vale.
Where is Charlton vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Port Vale part of?
Charlton vs Port Vale is a League One fixture (matchday 4) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 60% chance of winning, Port Vale a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Charlton and Port Vale will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Charlton vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.05x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.78x) against Charlton's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 49 games and Port Vale's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
60%
1.68
22%
4.55
18%
5.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.86
0.95
Port Vale xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
5.42
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
15%
6.70
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
3%
36.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Port Vale Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Charlton and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Charlton and 0.95 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Port Vale?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Charlton come into this having played 49 games, going 17W 14D 18L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Port Vale sit at 1.08 PPG from 49 outings (14W 11D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Charlton against 1.08 for Port Vale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Charlton's home form reads 10W 7D 8L across their last 25 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Port Vale have taken 0.84 points per game from their last 25 away games (5W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.00 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Port Vale
Early Season
Charlton (Home) vs Port Vale (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Early Season
Port Vale
Early Season
❓ Charlton vs Port Vale Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 17W 14D 18L in their last 49 games (1.33 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 14W 11D 24L in their last 49 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Port Vale away?
Charlton's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.48 PPG; Port Vale away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 6 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Charlton
1
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Port Vale H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Port Vale?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 1, Port Vale have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Charlton and Port Vale last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 January 2024: Port Vale 3-3 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Port Vale?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 68%, Port Vale 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Charlton) and 60% (Port Vale). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port Vale in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Port Vale Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Port Vale matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Charlton's games and 48% of Port Vale's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charlton and Port Vale matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Charlton's matches and 60% of Port Vale's.
Do Charlton and Port Vale matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Charlton's recent matches and 68% of Port Vale's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port Vale defy the odds to beat Charlton 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Charlton 2-3 at The Valley, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.90 xG and Port Vale 0.95 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Port Vale outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Port Vale attack 0.78 / defence 1.46, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 60% | Draw 22% | Port Vale 18%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Port Vale win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 49%, Port Vale 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Port Vale's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.33 PPG, Port Vale 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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