Derby 1-2 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pride Park Stadium plays host to Derby versus Charlton in League One (matchday 13). Kick-off: Tuesday 27 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Derby have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Derby at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Charlton (all games): 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Derby. A 1.50 PPG lead over Charlton (2.00 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Derby's last 10 home games and Charlton's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Derby's games and 70% of Charlton's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Derby, 1 for Charlton and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 3 Feb 2024, ended Derby 1–0 Charlton — a Derby win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (last 80 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (last 80 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 50% versus Charlton 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 49% | Charlton 52%). Note also that Charlton surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Derby recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.98 xG and Charlton 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.223 / defence 0.902 | Charlton attack 0.964 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.218. Charlton's defence rating of 1.220 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derby's projected output up. Data: built from Derby's last 80 games and Charlton's last 80.
Result probabilities: Derby 59% | Draw 21% | Charlton 20%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.70 | Draw 4.66 | Charlton 5.07. The model has a clear lean to Derby (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Derby's last 10 home games and Charlton's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Derby 70% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Charlton | Competition: League One, matchday 13 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 59% | Draw 21% | Charlton 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Derby 1.98 / Charlton 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.223 / def 0.902 | Charlton attack 0.964 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Derby (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Charlton xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Charlton FAQs
What time does Derby vs Charlton kick off?
Derby vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 27 February 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Charlton?
Derby 1 - 2 Charlton.
Where is Derby vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Charlton part of?
Derby vs Charlton is a League One fixture (matchday 13) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 59% chance of winning, Charlton a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Derby and Charlton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Derby vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Derby's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.96x) against Derby's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 80 games and Charlton's last 80 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
59%
1.70
21%
4.66
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Derby xG
Total xG
3.04
1.06
Charlton xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
14%
7.27
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
3%
36.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Charlton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Derby and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Derby and 1.06 for Charlton, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Charlton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby's recent record stands at 41W 19D 20L from 80 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 23W 27D 30L across 80 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charlton heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Derby have managed 22W 10D 7L from their last 39 home games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 8W 15D 16L across their last 39 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.46 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 65%.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 80 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
Derby (Home) vs Charlton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Derby vs Charlton Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Charlton in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 41W 19D 20L in their last 80 games (1.78 PPG), while Charlton have gone 23W 27D 30L in their last 80 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Charlton away?
Derby's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.95 PPG; Charlton away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Derby or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Charlton in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Derby and Charlton, the earliest from August 2022. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Derby
1
Draws
3
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Charlton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Charlton?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 3, Charlton have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Derby and Charlton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Charlton 2-1 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 54%, Charlton 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Derby) and 46% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Charlton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Charlton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Charlton matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Derby's games and 59% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Derby and Charlton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Derby's recent games and 46% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Charlton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Derby's recent matches and 64% of Charlton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Derby 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Derby 1-2 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.98 xG and Charlton 1.06 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Derby fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Charlton outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.22 / defence 0.90 against Charlton attack 0.96 / defence 1.22, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 59% | Draw 21% | Charlton 20%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Charlton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 49%, Charlton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Charlton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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