Charlton 0-0 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Portsmouth at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Portsmouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Portsmouth make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in League One (matchday 35). The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Charlton's record over their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Charlton have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Charlton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Portsmouth (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Portsmouth's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Portsmouth are 1.80 PPG clear of Charlton over their recent games (2.20 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Charlton, who have won 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Portsmouth — Portsmouth have 0 wins, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Charlton 2–2 Portsmouth — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Charlton and goals — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Charlton — key trading statistics (last 79 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Portsmouth — key trading statistics (last 79 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 66% versus Portsmouth 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 53% | Portsmouth 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Charlton surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Portsmouth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.00 xG and Portsmouth 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.041 / defence 1.191 | Portsmouth attack 1.078 / defence 0.720. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.212. Portsmouth bring a tight defence (rating 0.720, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Charlton's projected output down. Data: built from Charlton's last 79 games and Portsmouth's last 80.
Result probabilities: Charlton 24% | Draw 25% | Portsmouth 50%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 4.12 | Draw 3.93 | Portsmouth 1.99. Portsmouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Charlton have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet Portsmouth are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Portsmouth are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portsmouth if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Charlton 70% (last 10 home games) | Portsmouth 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Portsmouth | Competition: League One, matchday 35 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 24% | Draw 25% | Portsmouth 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Charlton 1.00 / Portsmouth 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.041 / def 1.191 | Portsmouth attack 1.078 / def 0.720 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Portsmouth xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Portsmouth FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Portsmouth kick off?
Charlton vs Portsmouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Charlton 0 - 0 Portsmouth.
Where is Charlton vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Portsmouth part of?
Charlton vs Portsmouth is a League One fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 24% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Charlton and Portsmouth will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Charlton vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.04x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Portsmouth's attack (1.08x) against Charlton's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 79 games and Portsmouth's last 80 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
24%
4.12
25%
3.93
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.55
1.56
Portsmouth xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
5%
19.53
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Portsmouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Charlton and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Charlton and 1.56 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 79 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 23W 26D 30L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Portsmouth's form line: 38W 27D 14L from 79 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Portsmouth are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.36 PPG from their last 39 home games (14W 11D 14L).
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 18W 12D 9L from their last 39 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.47 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 79 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Portsmouth
Current Season
Charlton (Home) vs Portsmouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Current Season
Portsmouth
Current Season
❓ Charlton vs Portsmouth Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 23W 26D 30L in their last 79 games (1.20 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 38W 27D 14L in their last 79 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Portsmouth away?
Portsmouth's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.36 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Charlton or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won Charlton 3-0 Portsmouth on 17 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Portsmouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Charlton
4
Draws
2
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Portsmouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Portsmouth?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 3, Portsmouth have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Portsmouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Charlton 0-0 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Portsmouth?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 74%, Portsmouth 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Charlton) and 41% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Portsmouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Portsmouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Charlton's games and 44% of Portsmouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charlton and Portsmouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Charlton's recent games and 41% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Portsmouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Charlton's recent matches and 67% of Portsmouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Charlton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton and Portsmouth finished level at 0-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.00 xG and Portsmouth 1.56 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Charlton fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Portsmouth landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.04 / defence 1.19 against Portsmouth attack 1.08 / defence 0.72, drawn from 79/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 24% | Draw 25% | Portsmouth 50%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 53%, Portsmouth 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Portsmouth's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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