Cambridge United 4-1 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambridge United at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cambridge United face Shrewsbury.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cledara Abbey Stadium plays host to Cambridge United versus Shrewsbury in League One (matchday 19). Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Cambridge United have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cambridge United's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Shrewsbury's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Shrewsbury's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Cambridge United against 0.80 for Shrewsbury. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Feb 2024, ended Cambridge United 2–1 Shrewsbury — a Cambridge United win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cambridge United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Shrewsbury goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 36% versus Shrewsbury 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cambridge United 36% | Shrewsbury 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.46 xG and Shrewsbury 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.869 / defence 1.005 | Shrewsbury attack 0.948 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.099. Shrewsbury's defence rating of 1.284 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cambridge United's projected output up. Data: built from Cambridge United's last 63 games and Shrewsbury's last 63.
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 47% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 27%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 2.14 | Draw 3.81 | Shrewsbury 3.69. Cambridge United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cambridge United as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cambridge United 40% (last 10 home games) | Shrewsbury 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, matchday 19 | Venue: Cledara Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 47% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Cambridge United 1.46 / Shrewsbury 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.869 / def 1.005 | Shrewsbury attack 0.948 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Shrewsbury xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury FAQs
What time does Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury?
Cambridge United 4 - 1 Shrewsbury.
Where is Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury part of?
Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury is a League One fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 47% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cambridge United and Shrewsbury will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cambridge United's attack at 0.87x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shrewsbury's attack (0.95x) against Cambridge United's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Cambridge United's last 63 games and Shrewsbury's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
47%
2.14
26%
3.81
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.51
1.05
Shrewsbury xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
6%
15.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.05 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambridge United come into this having played 63 games, going 15W 16D 32L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Shrewsbury sit at 0.94 PPG from 63 outings (16W 11D 36L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Cambridge United against 0.94 for Shrewsbury. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cambridge United's home form reads 10W 10D 11L across their last 31 home games, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Shrewsbury have taken 0.81 points per game from their last 31 away games (6W 7D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambridge United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambridge United are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.83 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Blended
Shrewsbury
Blended
Cambridge United (Home) vs Shrewsbury (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cambridge United
Blended
Shrewsbury
Blended
❓ Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury Form FAQs
What form are Cambridge United and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 15W 16D 32L in their last 63 games (0.97 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 16W 11D 36L in their last 63 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Shrewsbury away?
Cambridge United's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.29 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent was on 27 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shrewsbury won Shrewsbury 5-1 Cambridge United on 21 Jan 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambridge United have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cambridge United
2
Draws
3
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Shrewsbury?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cambridge United have won 5, Shrewsbury have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Shrewsbury last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2026: Cambridge United 1-0 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Cambridge United and Shrewsbury?
Cambridge United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambridge United see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 42%, Shrewsbury 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Cambridge United and 42% for Shrewsbury.
On the defensive side: Cambridge United have failed to score in 36% of games; Shrewsbury in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cambridge United and Shrewsbury matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 36% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cambridge United and Shrewsbury matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Cambridge United's recent games and 42% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Shrewsbury matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 71% of Shrewsbury's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cambridge United run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Shrewsbury.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United beat Shrewsbury 4-1 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.46 xG and Shrewsbury 1.05 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Cambridge United beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Shrewsbury attack 0.95 / defence 1.28, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 47% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 27%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 36%, Shrewsbury 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambridge United 0.97 PPG, Shrewsbury 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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