Lincoln 0-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lincoln at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lincoln vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lincoln and Charlton meet at LNER Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lincoln have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lincoln have posted 4W 1D 5L at LNER Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Charlton have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Lincoln, 0.90 for Charlton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Lincoln 3W, Charlton 1W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lincoln — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Charlton — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 49% versus Charlton 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 43% | Charlton 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.60 xG and Charlton 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.172 / defence 1.157 | Charlton attack 0.893 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.097. Data: 64 Lincoln games / 63 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 48% | Draw 25% | Charlton 27%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Charlton 3.70. Lincoln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 80% | Charlton 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 48% | Draw 25% | Charlton 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Lincoln 1.60 / Charlton 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.172 / def 1.157 | Charlton attack 0.893 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Charlton xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Charlton kick off?
Lincoln vs Charlton kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Charlton?
Lincoln 0 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Lincoln vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Charlton part of?
Lincoln vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 48% chance of winning, Charlton a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lincoln and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Charlton?
Record (6 meetings): Lincoln 3W | Draws 2 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Lincoln and Charlton in?
Lincoln (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Charlton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 1.17x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.89x) against Lincoln's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
48%
2.08
25%
4.03
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.73
1.13
Charlton xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
5%
18.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.13 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lincoln's recent record stands at 27W 19D 17L from 63 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 17W 24D 22L across 63 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lincoln by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charlton heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 14W 8D 9L from 31 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 6W 13D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lincoln are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.30 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 67%.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Charlton in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 27W 19D 17L in their last 63 games (1.59 PPG), while Charlton have gone 17W 24D 22L in their last 63 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Charlton away?
Lincoln's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.61 PPG; Charlton away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Charlton in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lincoln have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lincoln
4
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 3, Charlton have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Charlton 2-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Charlton?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 48%, Charlton 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Lincoln) and 39% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Lincoln have failed to score in 26% of games; Charlton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Lincoln's games and 64% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lincoln vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Lincoln's recent games and 39% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Charlton tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Charlton in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lincoln's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln and Charlton finished level at 0-0 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.60 xG and Charlton 1.13 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lincoln fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Charlton landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.17 / defence 1.16 against Charlton attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 48% | Draw 25% | Charlton 27%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 43%, Charlton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lincoln arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.