Burton Albion 0-1 Wrexham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wrexham at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Wrexham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Wrexham travel to Pirelli Stadium to take on Burton Albion. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 League One matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burton Albion have posted 2W 2D 6L at Pirelli Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Wrexham — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Wrexham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wrexham's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Wrexham are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Wrexham in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 46% versus Wrexham 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 49% | Wrexham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 0.88 xG and Wrexham 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.746 / defence 1.294 | Wrexham attack 0.745 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.099. Burton Albion's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Burton Albion games / 18 Wrexham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 30% | Draw 31% | Wrexham 39%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Wrexham 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wrexham are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wrexham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 50% | Wrexham 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Wrexham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 30% | Draw 31% | Wrexham 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Burton Albion 0.88 / Wrexham 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.746 / def 1.294 | Wrexham attack 0.745 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Wrexham xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Wrexham kick off?
Burton Albion vs Wrexham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Wrexham?
Burton Albion 0 - 1 Wrexham.
Where is Burton Albion vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Wrexham part of?
Burton Albion vs Wrexham is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 30% chance of winning, Wrexham a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Burton Albion and Wrexham will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Wrexham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burton Albion and Wrexham in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Wrexham (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Wrexham's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Wrexham's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
30%
3.38
31%
3.20
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
1.94
1.06
Wrexham xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 15.3 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.06 for Wrexham, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Wrexham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burton Albion come into this having played 63 games, going 14W 15D 34L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wrexham sit at 1.98 PPG from 63 outings (37W 14D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Wrexham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wrexham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Burton Albion's home form reads 8W 6D 17L across 31 games on their own ground, a 0.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Wrexham have taken 1.39 points per game from 31 outings (11W 10D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wrexham's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Burton Albion are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 1.79 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Wrexham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 14W 15D 34L in their last 63 games (0.90 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 37W 14D 12L in their last 63 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Wrexham away?
Wrexham's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 0.97 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Wrexham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Wrexham in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burton Albion and Wrexham runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Burton Albion
0
Draws
2
Wrexham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Wrexham?
From 2 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 0, Wrexham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Wrexham last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Wrexham 3-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Wrexham?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 48%, Wrexham 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Burton Albion) and 36% (Wrexham).
On the defensive side: Wrexham in 32%; Burton Albion have failed to score in 39% of games; Wrexham in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Wrexham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 45% of Wrexham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Wrexham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Burton Albion's recent games and 36% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Wrexham tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Wrexham in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wrexham edge out Burton Albion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Burton Albion 0-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 0.88 xG and Wrexham 1.06 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burton Albion fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.75 / defence 1.29 against Wrexham attack 0.74 / defence 0.90, drawn from 63/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 30% | Draw 31% | Wrexham 39%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 49%, Wrexham 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wrexham's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.