Burton Albion 1-1 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Wigan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burton Albion host Wigan at Pirelli Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 29 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Pirelli Stadium, Burton Albion have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wigan stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Wigan's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Burton Albion) versus 1.40 (Wigan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Burton Albion have won 2, Wigan 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Burton Albion winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Burton Albion trading profile (90 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Wigan trading profile (90 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 49% versus Wigan 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 49% | Wigan 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 0.99 xG and Wigan 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.083 / defence 1.102 | Wigan attack 0.741 / defence 0.708. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.169. Wigan's defence strength of 0.708 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 90 Burton Albion games / 90 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 35% | Draw 32% | Wigan 33%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Wigan 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. This conflicts with form data: Burton Albion 80% | Wigan 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 35% | Draw 32% | Wigan 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Burton Albion 0.99 / Wigan 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 1.083 / def 1.102 | Wigan attack 0.741 / def 0.708 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Wigan xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Wigan kick off?
Burton Albion vs Wigan kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 29 April 2025 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Wigan?
Burton Albion 1 - 1 Wigan.
Where is Burton Albion vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Wigan part of?
Burton Albion vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 35% chance of winning, Wigan a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Burton Albion and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Wigan?
Record (5 meetings): Burton Albion 2W | Draws 2 | Wigan 1W.
What form are Burton Albion and Wigan in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Wigan (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Burton Albion's attack at 1.08x the league average against Wigan's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 90/90 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
35%
2.88
32%
3.09
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
1.94
0.95
Wigan xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
12%
8.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 13.7 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Burton Albion and 0.95 for Wigan, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burton Albion come into this having played 90 games, going 23W 23D 44L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Wigan sit at 1.38 PPG from 90 outings (33W 25D 32L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 1.02 PPG, Wigan on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Burton Albion's home form reads 13W 9D 22L across 44 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Wigan have taken 1.20 points per game from 44 outings (13W 14D 17L).
The Goals Picture
Burton Albion are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.12 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Wigan in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 90 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Wigan in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 23W 23D 44L in their last 90 games (1.02 PPG), while Wigan have gone 33W 25D 32L in their last 90 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Wigan away?
Wigan's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.09 PPG; Wigan away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Wigan in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burton Albion and Wigan runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 29 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Wigan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
3
Draws
3
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Wigan?
From 8 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 2, Wigan have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2025, when Burton Albion 0-2 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Wigan?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 57%, Wigan 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Burton Albion) and 43% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 32% of games; Wigan in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Wigan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Burton Albion's games and 54% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burton Albion vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Burton Albion's recent games and 43% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Wigan tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Wigan in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion and Wigan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 38, as Burton Albion and Wigan drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 0.99 xG and Wigan 0.95 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.08 / defence 1.10 against Wigan attack 0.74 / defence 0.71, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 35% | Draw 32% | Wigan 33%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 49%, Wigan 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (90 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Wigan's trading profile (90 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.02 PPG, Wigan 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.