Burton Albion 3-0 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Stockport County (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Burton Albion face Stockport County.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burton Albion and Stockport County meet at Pirelli Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Pirelli Stadium, Burton Albion have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Stockport County (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Stockport County arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Stockport County hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Stockport County winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Stockport County have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Stockport County — key trading statistics (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 51% versus Stockport County 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 54% | Stockport County 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.04 xG and Stockport County 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.915 / defence 1.127 | Stockport County attack 0.947 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.150. Stockport County's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 78 Burton Albion games / 78 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 31% | Draw 28% | Stockport County 41%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Stockport County 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 40% | Stockport County 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 31% | Draw 28% | Stockport County 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Burton Albion 1.04 / Stockport County 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.915 / def 1.127 | Stockport County attack 0.947 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Stockport County xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Stockport County kick off?
Burton Albion vs Stockport County kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Stockport County?
Burton Albion 3 - 0 Stockport County.
Where is Burton Albion vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Stockport County part of?
Burton Albion vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 31% chance of winning, Stockport County a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Burton Albion and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Stockport County?
Record (3 meetings): Burton Albion 0W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 3W.
What form are Burton Albion and Stockport County in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.92) and Stockport County's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (0.95x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 78/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
31%
3.22
28%
3.51
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.26
1.23
Stockport County xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
14%
6.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.23 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 78 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 20W 23D 35L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Stockport County's form line: 39W 22D 17L from 78 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Stockport County are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 1.18 PPG from 38 outings (12W 9D 17L).
On the road, Stockport County have gone 15W 13D 10L from 38 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burton Albion are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.49 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 78 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 20W 23D 35L in their last 78 games (1.06 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 39W 22D 17L in their last 78 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.18 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Stockport County in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stockport County won 0-3 on 23 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stockport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
0
Draws
3
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Stockport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Stockport County have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Burton Albion 3-0 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 50%, Stockport County 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Burton Albion) and 37% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 55% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Burton Albion's recent games and 37% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Stockport County tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Burton Albion run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stockport County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Stockport County 3-0 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.04 xG and Stockport County 1.23 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Burton Albion beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stockport County landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.92 / defence 1.13 against Stockport County attack 0.95 / defence 0.79, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 31% | Draw 28% | Stockport County 41%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 54%, Stockport County 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Stockport County's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.