West Brom 0-0 Millwall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Millwall (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as West Brom face Millwall.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Hawthorns plays host to West Brom versus Millwall in Championship, Regular Season - 42. Kick-off: Friday 10 April 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
West Brom's overall Championship record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at The Hawthorns, West Brom have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Millwall (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Millwall's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Millwall are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the last 9 meetings, Millwall have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to West Brom's 0, with 6 draws in the mix.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 9 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with Millwall winning.
It is worth noting that Millwall have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Millwall half-time and goal-timing data (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 55% versus Millwall 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 41% | Millwall 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.09 xG and Millwall 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.002 / defence 1.093 | Millwall attack 1.165 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.200. Data: 87 West Brom games / 87 Millwall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 25% | Draw 29% | Millwall 46%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Millwall 2.17. Millwall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Millwall at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Millwall if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 60% | Millwall 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Millwall | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Friday 10 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 25% | Draw 29% | Millwall 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG West Brom 1.09 / Millwall 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.002 / def 1.093 | Millwall attack 1.165 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Millwall (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Millwall xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Millwall kick off?
West Brom vs Millwall kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 10 April 2026 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Millwall?
West Brom 0 - 0 Millwall.
Where is West Brom vs Millwall being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Millwall part of?
West Brom vs Millwall is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Millwall?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 25% chance of winning, Millwall a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Millwall?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both West Brom and Millwall will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Millwall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Millwall?
Record (9 meetings): West Brom 0W | Draws 6 | Millwall 3W.
What form are West Brom and Millwall in?
West Brom (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Millwall (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from West Brom's attack rating (1.00) and Millwall's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Millwall's attack (1.17x) against West Brom's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 87/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
25%
3.93
29%
3.48
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.62
1.53
Millwall xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
6%
18.11
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Millwall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are West Brom and Millwall expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for West Brom and 1.53 for Millwall, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Millwall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
West Brom come into this having played 87 games, going 26W 31D 30L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Millwall sit at 1.59 PPG from 87 outings (39W 21D 27L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for West Brom against 1.59 for Millwall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
West Brom's home form reads 18W 16D 9L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Millwall have taken 1.44 points per game from 43 outings (16W 14D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
West Brom are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Millwall are on 1.18 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Millwall in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 87 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Current Season
Millwall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Millwall in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 26W 31D 30L in their last 87 games (1.25 PPG), while Millwall have gone 39W 21D 27L in their last 87 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Millwall away?
West Brom's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.63 PPG; Millwall away: 1.44 PPG.
Have West Brom or Millwall been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Millwall in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Millwall won 3-0 on 4 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 0W 5D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Millwall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
West Brom
7
Draws
3
Millwall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Millwall?
From 10 meetings on record, West Brom have won 0, Millwall have won 3, and 7 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Millwall last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when West Brom 0-0 Millwall.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Millwall?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Millwall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 51%, Millwall 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (West Brom) and 37% (Millwall).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Millwall in 33%; West Brom have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Millwall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Millwall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of West Brom's recent matches and 54% of Millwall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Millwall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of West Brom's recent games and 37% of Millwall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Millwall tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Millwall in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at West Brom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom and Millwall finished level at 0-0 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.09 xG and Millwall 1.53 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. West Brom fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Millwall landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.00 / defence 1.09 against Millwall attack 1.17 / defence 0.84, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 25% | Draw 29% | Millwall 46%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 41%, Millwall 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Millwall's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.25 PPG, Millwall 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Millwall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.