West Brom 0-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Derby travel to The Hawthorns to take on West Brom. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
West Brom — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. West Brom have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
West Brom at The Hawthorns this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
West Brom are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Derby have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for West Brom.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2025, ended 1–3 with Derby winning.
It is worth noting that Derby have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
West Brom in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Derby in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 56% versus Derby 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (West Brom 36% | Derby 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.62 xG and Derby 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.032 / defence 0.899 | Derby attack 1.064 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.201. Data: 50 West Brom games / 50 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 48% | Draw 25% | Derby 27%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Derby 3.70. West Brom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Derby lead the H2H ledger, but West Brom carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Brom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 50% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 48% | Draw 25% | Derby 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG West Brom 1.62 / Derby 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.032 / def 0.899 | Derby attack 1.064 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: West Brom (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Derby xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Derby kick off?
West Brom vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Derby?
West Brom 0 - 1 Derby.
Where is West Brom vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Derby part of?
West Brom vs Derby is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 48% chance of winning, Derby a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both West Brom and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Derby?
Record (4 meetings): West Brom 0W | Draws 1 | Derby 3W.
What form are West Brom and Derby in?
West Brom (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Derby (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates West Brom's attack at 1.03x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
48%
2.06
25%
4.07
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.77
1.15
Derby xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
5%
18.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are West Brom and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for West Brom and 1.15 for Derby, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
West Brom come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 20D 12L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for West Brom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.04 PPG from 50 outings (13W 13D 24L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
West Brom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Derby — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
West Brom's home form reads 12W 9D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Derby have taken 0.76 points per game from 25 outings (4W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
West Brom are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.10 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Derby in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 18W 20D 12L in their last 50 games (1.48 PPG), while Derby have gone 13W 13D 24L in their last 50 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Derby away?
West Brom's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.80 PPG; Derby away: 0.76 PPG.
Have West Brom or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Derby in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between West Brom and Derby runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 9 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
West Brom's record when hosting Derby specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
West Brom
2
Draws
4
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Derby?
From 7 meetings on record, West Brom have won 1, Derby have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2026, when Derby 0-1 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Derby see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 44%, Derby 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (West Brom) and 52% (Derby).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; West Brom have failed to score in 28% of games; Derby in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of West Brom's recent matches and 64% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of West Brom's recent games and 52% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Derby tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Derby in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat West Brom 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat West Brom 0-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 5, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.62 xG and Derby 1.15 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. West Brom fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.03 / defence 0.90 against Derby attack 1.06 / defence 1.17, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 48% | Draw 25% | Derby 27%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 36%, Derby 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Derby winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.