West Brom 0-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Brom vs Cardiff encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
West Brom host Cardiff at The Hawthorns in Championship, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
West Brom — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Brom have posted 4W 4D 2L at The Hawthorns — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
West Brom carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of West Brom: 3 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Cardiff, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with West Brom winning.
The historical record gives West Brom a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
West Brom in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Cardiff in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 44% versus Cardiff 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 44% | Cardiff 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.39 xG and Cardiff 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.727 / defence 0.735 | Cardiff attack 0.920 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 0.944. West Brom's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing West Brom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. West Brom's defence rating of 0.735 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 West Brom games / 57 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 54% | Draw 31% | Cardiff 15%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 1.85 | Draw 3.23 | Cardiff 6.67. West Brom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Brom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 10% | Cardiff 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 54% | Draw 31% | Cardiff 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG West Brom 1.39 / Cardiff 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.727 / def 0.735 | Cardiff attack 0.920 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.398 / away 0.944 • Poisson stance: West Brom (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Cardiff xG
37%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Cardiff kick off?
West Brom vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Cardiff?
West Brom 0 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is West Brom vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Cardiff part of?
West Brom vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 54% chance of winning, Cardiff a 15% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both West Brom and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Cardiff?
Record (6 meetings): West Brom 3W | Draws 3 | Cardiff 0W.
What form are West Brom and Cardiff in?
West Brom (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Cardiff (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about West Brom vs Cardiff?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from West Brom's attack rating (0.73) and Cardiff's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
54%
1.87
31%
3.23
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.03
0.64
Cardiff xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
4%
25.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 11.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are West Brom and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for West Brom and 0.64 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
West Brom's recent record stands at 25W 17D 15L from 57 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 22W 7D 28L across 57 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Brom on 1.61 PPG, Cardiff on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, West Brom have managed 16W 7D 5L from 28 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cardiff's away record stands at 9W 4D 15L across 28 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
West Brom are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.12 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Cardiff in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 25W 17D 15L in their last 57 games (1.61 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 22W 7D 28L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Cardiff away?
West Brom's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.96 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.11 PPG.
Have West Brom or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Cardiff in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2021, when West Brom won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
West Brom's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
West Brom
5
Draws
0
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Cardiff?
From 8 meetings on record, West Brom have won 3, Cardiff have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Cardiff 0-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Cardiff?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
West Brom see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 29%, Cardiff 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (West Brom) and 54% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; West Brom have failed to score in 29% of games; Cardiff in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of West Brom's recent matches and 50% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of West Brom's recent games and 54% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Cardiff tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at West Brom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom and Cardiff finished level at 0-0 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 12, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.39 xG and Cardiff 0.64 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. West Brom fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.73 / defence 0.73 against Cardiff attack 0.92 / defence 1.37, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 54% | Draw 31% | Cardiff 15%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 44%, Cardiff 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cardiff's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.61 PPG, Cardiff 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.