Stoke City 0-0 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stoke City at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stoke City face Preston.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
bet365 Stadium plays host to Stoke City versus Preston in Championship (matchday 17). Kick-off: Tuesday 26 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Stoke City have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stoke City at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Preston's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Preston have posted 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Stoke City against 1.10 for Preston. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Preston edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2024, ended Stoke City 2–1 Preston — a Stoke City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Stoke City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Preston goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 44% versus Preston 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 42% | Preston 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 2.26 xG and Preston 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 1.210 / defence 1.149 | Preston attack 0.966 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.062. Preston's defence rating of 1.392 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stoke City's projected output up. Data: built from Stoke City's last 62 games and Preston's last 62.
Result probabilities: Stoke City 61% | Draw 21% | Preston 18%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 1.64 | Draw 4.72 | Preston 5.57. The model has a clear lean to Stoke City (61%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.26 / 1.18) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stoke City as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stoke City's last 10 home games and Preston's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stoke City 70% (last 10 home games) | Preston 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Preston | Competition: Championship, matchday 17 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 61% | Draw 21% | Preston 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Stoke City 2.26 / Preston 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 1.210 / def 1.149 | Preston attack 0.966 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Preston xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stoke City vs Preston FAQs
What time does Stoke City vs Preston kick off?
Stoke City vs Preston kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 26 November 2024 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Preston?
Stoke City 0 - 0 Preston.
Where is Stoke City vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Preston part of?
Stoke City vs Preston is a Championship fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 61% chance of winning, Preston a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Stoke City and Preston will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stoke City vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stoke City's attack at 1.21x the league average against Preston's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 2.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Preston's attack (0.97x) against Stoke City's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from Stoke City's last 62 games and Preston's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.72
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Stoke City xG
Total xG
3.44
1.18
Preston xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
10%
9.58
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
2%
53.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stoke City vs Preston Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.18 for Preston, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Preston?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stoke City come into this having played 62 games, going 20W 16D 26L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.27 PPG from 62 outings (21W 16D 25L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Stoke City against 1.27 for Preston. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Stoke City's home form reads 10W 9D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 30 away games (7W 8D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stoke City are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.16 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Blended
Preston
Blended
Stoke City (Home) vs Preston (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stoke City
Blended
Preston
Blended
❓ Stoke City vs Preston Form FAQs
What form are Stoke City and Preston in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 20W 16D 26L in their last 62 games (1.23 PPG), while Preston have gone 21W 16D 25L in their last 62 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Preston away?
Stoke City's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.30 PPG; Preston away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stoke City have gone 1W 2D 3L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Preston — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Stoke City
3
Draws
4
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Stoke City vs Preston H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Preston?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stoke City have won 3, Preston have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Preston last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Stoke City 2-0 Preston.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Preston?
Preston have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 43%, Preston 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Stoke City) and 50% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stoke City have failed to score in 33% of games; Preston in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stoke City vs Preston Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stoke City and Preston matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stoke City's recent matches and 43% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stoke City and Preston matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Stoke City's recent games and 50% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Preston matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Stoke City's recent matches and 67% of Preston's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stoke City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Stoke City and Preston drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 2.26 xG and Preston 1.18 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stoke City fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Preston landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.21 / defence 1.15 against Preston attack 0.97 / defence 1.39, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 61% | Draw 21% | Preston 18%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 42%, Preston 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Preston's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.23 PPG, Preston 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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