QPR 1-1 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stoke City at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Stoke City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Stoke City travel to MATRADE Loftus Road to take on QPR. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, QPR stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's home record at MATRADE Loftus Road: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — QPR are significantly better at MATRADE Loftus Road than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Stoke City have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Stoke City have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Stoke City's 1.30 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of QPR's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for QPR, 3 for Stoke City and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with Stoke City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
QPR in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Stoke City in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 51% versus Stoke City 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 44% | Stoke City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 0.98 xG and Stoke City 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.809 / defence 1.385 | Stoke City attack 0.822 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.007. Data: 61 QPR games / 61 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 30% | Draw 32% | Stoke City 38%. Fair-value odds: QPR 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Stoke City 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stoke City are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stoke City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: QPR 70% | Stoke City 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 30% | Draw 32% | Stoke City 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG QPR 0.98 / Stoke City 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.809 / def 1.385 | Stoke City attack 0.822 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Stoke City xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Stoke City kick off?
QPR vs Stoke City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Stoke City?
QPR 1 - 1 Stoke City.
Where is QPR vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Stoke City part of?
QPR vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 30% chance of winning, Stoke City a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both QPR and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Stoke City?
Record (6 meetings): QPR 2W | Draws 1 | Stoke City 3W.
What form are QPR and Stoke City in?
QPR (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Stoke City (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about QPR vs Stoke City?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates QPR's attack at 0.81x the league average against Stoke City's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stoke City's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
30%
3.35
32%
3.13
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
QPR xG
Total xG
2.13
1.15
Stoke City xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
9%
10.53
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.6 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are QPR and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for QPR and 1.15 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
QPR come into this having played 61 games, going 16W 18D 27L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stoke City sit at 1.23 PPG from 61 outings (20W 15D 26L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.08 PPG, Stoke City on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
QPR's home form reads 7W 10D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Stoke City have taken 1.10 points per game from 30 outings (9W 6D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.10 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Stoke City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Stoke City in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 16W 18D 27L in their last 61 games (1.08 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 20W 15D 26L in their last 61 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Stoke City away?
Stoke City's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.03 PPG; Stoke City away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
QPR's record when hosting Stoke City specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
QPR
3
Draws
4
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Stoke City?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 3, Stoke City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Stoke City 0-0 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Stoke City?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 63%, Stoke City 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (QPR) and 37% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: Stoke City in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Stoke City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of QPR's recent matches and 40% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of QPR's recent games and 37% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Stoke City tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Stoke City in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
QPR and Stoke City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 16, as QPR and Stoke City drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 0.98 xG and Stoke City 1.15 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.81 / defence 1.39 against Stoke City attack 0.82 / defence 0.92, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 30% | Draw 32% | Stoke City 38%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 44%, Stoke City 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Stoke City's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.08 PPG, Stoke City 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.