Stoke City 0-2 Burnley – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Stoke City take on Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 18 as Stoke City welcome Burnley to bet365 Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Stoke City have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at bet365 Stadium, Stoke City have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Stoke City) versus 1.90 (Burnley). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stoke City, 1 for Burnley and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2022, ended 0–1 with Burnley winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Stoke City in-play tendencies (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Burnley in-play tendencies (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 44% versus Burnley 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 42% | Burnley 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 0.94 xG and Burnley 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 1.063 / defence 1.079 | Burnley attack 0.835 / defence 0.667. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.030. Burnley's defence strength of 0.667 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Stoke City games / 17 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 33% | Draw 35% | Burnley 32%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Burnley 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stoke City 70% | Burnley 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 33% | Draw 35% | Burnley 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Stoke City 0.94 / Burnley 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 1.063 / def 1.079 | Burnley attack 0.835 / def 0.667 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Burnley xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs Burnley kick off?
Stoke City vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Burnley?
Stoke City 0 - 2 Burnley.
Where is Stoke City vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Burnley part of?
Stoke City vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 33% chance of winning, Burnley a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Stoke City and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Burnley?
Record (2 meetings): Stoke City 0W | Draws 1 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Stoke City and Burnley in?
Stoke City (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Burnley (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stoke City's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
35%
2.88
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Stoke City xG
Total xG
1.87
0.93
Burnley xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 14.3 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Stoke City and 0.93 for Burnley, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Stoke City have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 18W 16D 21L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley's form line: 14W 15D 26L from 55 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stoke City on 1.27 PPG, Burnley on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stoke City have posted 1.32 PPG from 28 outings (9W 10D 9L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 7W 8D 13L from 28 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Stoke City are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.13 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and Burnley in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 18W 16D 21L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while Burnley have gone 14W 15D 26L in their last 55 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Burnley away?
Stoke City's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.32 PPG; Burnley away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Burnley in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stoke City and Burnley runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stoke City's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Stoke City
2
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 0, Burnley have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2025, when Burnley 0-0 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 43%, Burnley 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stoke City) and 46% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Stoke City have failed to score in 36% of games; Burnley in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stoke City's recent matches and 54% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stoke City vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stoke City's recent games and 46% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Burnley tend to score early?
Stoke City have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Burnley in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stoke City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Stoke City 0-2 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 0.94 xG and Burnley 0.93 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Stoke City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Burnley outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.06 / defence 1.08 against Burnley attack 0.83 / defence 0.67, drawn from 63/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 33% | Draw 35% | Burnley 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 42%, Burnley 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.27 PPG, Burnley 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.