QPR 1-2 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Cardiff travel to Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium to take on QPR. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, QPR stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, QPR have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cardiff's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (QPR) versus 1.60 (Cardiff). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for QPR, 0 for Cardiff and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with QPR winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
QPR in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Cardiff in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 56% versus Cardiff 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 50% | Cardiff 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.68 xG and Cardiff 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.043 / defence 1.001 | Cardiff attack 0.963 / defence 1.503. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.067. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.503 — this is suppressing QPR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 QPR games / 35 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 53% | Draw 24% | Cardiff 23%. Fair-value odds: QPR 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Cardiff 4.35. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: QPR 30% | Cardiff 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 53% | Draw 24% | Cardiff 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG QPR 1.68 / Cardiff 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.043 / def 1.001 | Cardiff attack 0.963 / def 1.503 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: QPR (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Cardiff xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Cardiff kick off?
QPR vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What was the final score in QPR vs Cardiff?
QPR 1 - 2 Cardiff.
Where is QPR vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What competition is QPR vs Cardiff part of?
QPR vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 53% chance of winning, Cardiff a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both QPR and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Cardiff?
Record (1 meetings): QPR 1W | Draws 0 | Cardiff 0W.
What form are QPR and Cardiff in?
QPR (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Cardiff (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates QPR's attack at 1.04x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.13
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
QPR xG
Total xG
2.71
1.03
Cardiff xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
4%
23.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are QPR and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for QPR and 1.03 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, QPR have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 16W 8D 10L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Cardiff's form line: 11W 5D 18L from 34 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
Put side by side, QPR are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cardiff.
Venue Form
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.88 PPG from 17 outings (9W 5D 3L).
On the road, Cardiff have gone 5W 4D 8L from 17 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.18 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Cardiff in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 16W 8D 10L in their last 34 games (1.65 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 11W 5D 18L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Cardiff away?
QPR's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.88 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2022, when QPR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
QPR's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
QPR
2
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Cardiff?
From 9 meetings on record, QPR have won 5, Cardiff have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when QPR 2-1 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Cardiff?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 41%, Cardiff 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (QPR) and 71% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: QPR keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of QPR's recent matches and 65% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of QPR's recent games and 71% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Cardiff tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cardiff defy the odds to beat QPR 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat QPR 1-2 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.68 xG and Cardiff 1.03 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cardiff outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against Cardiff attack 0.96 / defence 1.50, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 53% | Draw 24% | Cardiff 23%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Cardiff win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 50%, Cardiff 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Cardiff's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, QPR arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Cardiff winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.