QPR 2-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
QPR host Blackburn at MATRADE Loftus Road in Championship, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 4 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
QPR — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
QPR at MATRADE Loftus Road this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Blackburn stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Blackburn away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, QPR have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Blackburn have the better historical record — 5 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for QPR.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Blackburn winning.
It is worth noting that Blackburn have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Blackburn in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 51% versus Blackburn 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 45% | Blackburn 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.08 xG and Blackburn 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.967 / defence 1.144 | Blackburn attack 0.855 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.040. Data: 76 QPR games / 76 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 36% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 33%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Blackburn 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Blackburn lead the H2H ledger, but QPR carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: QPR 60% | Blackburn 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 36% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG QPR 1.08 / Blackburn 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.967 / def 1.144 | Blackburn attack 0.855 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: QPR (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Blackburn xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Blackburn kick off?
QPR vs Blackburn kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 4 February 2025 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Blackburn?
QPR 2 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is QPR vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Blackburn part of?
QPR vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 36% chance of winning, Blackburn a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both QPR and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Blackburn?
Record (6 meetings): QPR 1W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 5W.
What form are QPR and Blackburn in?
QPR (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Blackburn (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from QPR's attack rating (0.97) and Blackburn's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
36%
2.80
32%
3.15
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
QPR xG
Total xG
2.10
1.02
Blackburn xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
11%
9.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are QPR and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for QPR and 1.02 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, QPR have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 24W 22D 30L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Blackburn's form line: 27W 17D 32L from 76 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.24 PPG, Blackburn on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.27 PPG from 37 outings (12W 11D 14L).
On the road, Blackburn have gone 12W 8D 17L from 37 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.24 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Blackburn in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 24W 22D 30L in their last 76 games (1.24 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 27W 17D 32L in their last 76 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Blackburn away?
QPR's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.27 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Blackburn won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
QPR's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
QPR
0
Draws
6
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Blackburn?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 4, Blackburn have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Blackburn 1-2 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Blackburn?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 62%, Blackburn 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (QPR) and 57% (Blackburn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Blackburn in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of QPR's recent matches and 43% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of QPR's matches and 57% of Blackburn's.
Do QPR and Blackburn tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Blackburn 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Blackburn 2-1 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.08 xG and Blackburn 1.02 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against Blackburn attack 0.85 / defence 0.81, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 36% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 33%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 45%, Blackburn 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Blackburn's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.24 PPG, Blackburn 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.