Portsmouth 1-2 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Portsmouth at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Portsmouth vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Plymouth make the trip to Fratton Park to face Portsmouth in Championship, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Wednesday 12 March 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Portsmouth (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Portsmouth's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Fratton Park this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Portsmouth are significantly better at Fratton Park than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth's overall Championship record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Plymouth away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Portsmouth. A 0.70 PPG lead over Plymouth (1.60 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Plymouth have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Portsmouth's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Plymouth winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Plymouth have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Portsmouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (82 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (82 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 54% versus Plymouth 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 60% | Plymouth 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 2.19 xG and Plymouth 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.119 / defence 0.840 | Plymouth attack 0.603 / defence 1.458. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.038. Plymouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.458 — this is suppressing Portsmouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Portsmouth games / 82 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 75% | Draw 17% | Plymouth 7%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 1.33 | Draw 5.88 | Plymouth 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Portsmouth (75%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Plymouth lead the H2H ledger, but Portsmouth carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Portsmouth as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Portsmouth 50% | Plymouth 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 75% | Draw 17% | Plymouth 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 37% | xG Portsmouth 2.19 / Plymouth 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.119 / def 0.840 | Plymouth attack 0.603 / def 1.458 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Plymouth xG
37%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Plymouth kick off?
Portsmouth vs Plymouth kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 12 March 2025 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Plymouth?
Portsmouth 1 - 2 Plymouth.
Where is Portsmouth vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Plymouth part of?
Portsmouth vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 75% chance of winning, Plymouth a 7% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Portsmouth and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Plymouth?
Record (5 meetings): Portsmouth 0W | Draws 2 | Plymouth 3W.
What form are Portsmouth and Plymouth in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Plymouth (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Portsmouth's attack at 1.12x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (0.60x) against Portsmouth's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.53.
These ratings are built from 36/82 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 3-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
75%
1.33
17%
5.73
7%
14.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
3 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.71
0.53
Plymouth xG
1.33
75%
Home win
5.73
17%
Draw
14.01
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
11%
8.91
Win to Nil
45%
2.24
1%
124.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 7.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.9 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Portsmouth and 0.53 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Portsmouth's recent record stands at 39W 22D 21L from 82 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 19W 24D 39L across 82 games — 0.99 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Portsmouth by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Plymouth heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Portsmouth have managed 24W 10D 7L from 41 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plymouth's away record stands at 3W 12D 26L across 41 trips, a 0.51 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.99 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Portsmouth are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.16 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 82 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 39W 22D 21L in their last 82 games (1.70 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 19W 24D 39L in their last 82 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Plymouth away?
Portsmouth's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 2.00 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.51 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Plymouth in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plymouth have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portsmouth have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Portsmouth
2
Draws
4
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Plymouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 0, Plymouth have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2025, when Portsmouth 1-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 61%, Plymouth 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Portsmouth) and 44% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Plymouth in 51%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 42% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Portsmouth's recent games and 44% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Plymouth tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Portsmouth 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Portsmouth 1-2 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 2.19 xG and Plymouth 0.53 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Portsmouth fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Plymouth outscored their 0.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.12 / defence 0.84 against Plymouth attack 0.60 / defence 1.46, drawn from 36/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 75% | Draw 17% | Plymouth 7%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a Plymouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 7% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 60%, Plymouth 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Plymouth's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.99. Form was overturned, with Plymouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.