Leicester 3-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leicester at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leicester vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Leicester and Swansea meet at King Power Stadium in Championship (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 30 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Leicester (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Leicester at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Swansea have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Swansea have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Leicester's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Swansea's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Leicester edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Leicester 3–1 Swansea — a Leicester win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Leicester goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 54% versus Swansea 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 59% | Swansea 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Leicester surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Swansea have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 2.29 xG and Swansea 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 1.292 / defence 0.818 | Swansea attack 1.136 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.186. Leicester carry an above-average attack rating of 1.292 — their 2.29 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Swansea's defence rating of 1.258 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Leicester's projected output up. Data: built from Leicester's last 28 games and Swansea's last 74.
Result probabilities: Leicester 64% | Draw 20% | Swansea 17%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 1.57 | Draw 5.07 | Swansea 6.02. The model has a clear lean to Leicester (64%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.29 / 1.10) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leicester are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Leicester's last 10 home games and Swansea's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Leicester 30% (last 10 home games) | Swansea 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, matchday 29 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 64% | Draw 20% | Swansea 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Leicester 2.29 / Swansea 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 1.292 / def 0.818 | Swansea attack 1.136 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Leicester (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Swansea xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leicester vs Swansea FAQs
What time does Leicester vs Swansea kick off?
Leicester vs Swansea kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 30 January 2024 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Swansea?
Leicester 3 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Leicester vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Swansea part of?
Leicester vs Swansea is a Championship fixture (matchday 29) (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 64% chance of winning, Swansea a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Leicester and Swansea will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Leicester vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Leicester's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Swansea's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (1.14x) against Leicester's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Leicester's last 28 games and Swansea's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
64%
1.57
20%
5.07
17%
6.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Leicester xG
Total xG
3.39
1.10
Swansea xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
6.02
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
10%
9.88
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
2%
59.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leicester vs Swansea Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Leicester and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Leicester and 1.10 for Swansea, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Swansea?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Leicester's recent record stands at 30W 10D 26L from 66 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 24W 18D 24L across 66 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Leicester against 1.36 for Swansea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Leicester have managed 16W 5D 12L from their last 33 home games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 10W 10D 13L across their last 33 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leicester are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.50 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swansea in 64%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
Leicester (Home) vs Swansea (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leicester
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Leicester vs Swansea Form FAQs
What form are Leicester and Swansea in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 30W 10D 26L in their last 66 games (1.52 PPG), while Swansea have gone 24W 18D 24L in their last 66 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Swansea away?
Leicester's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.61 PPG; Swansea away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leicester have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Leicester
0
Draws
1
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Leicester vs Swansea H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Swansea?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Leicester have won 3, Swansea have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Swansea last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Leicester 0-1 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Swansea?
Leicester have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 42%, Swansea 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Leicester and 64% for Swansea. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leicester keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Leicester have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leicester vs Swansea Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leicester and Swansea matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Leicester's recent matches and 64% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Leicester and Swansea matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Leicester's matches and 64% of Swansea's.
Do Leicester and Swansea matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Leicester's recent matches and 82% of Swansea's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Leicester cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Swansea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester beat Swansea 3-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 2.29 xG and Swansea 1.10 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.29 / defence 0.82 against Swansea attack 1.14 / defence 1.26, drawn from 28/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 64% | Draw 20% | Swansea 17%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 59%, Swansea 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Swansea's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 1.52 PPG, Swansea 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock. Leicester (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Swansea (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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