Hull City 0-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 40%, yet in-form Sunderland provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hull City vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hull City and Sunderland meet at The MKM Stadium in Championship (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Hull City have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Hull City at home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sunderland's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Sunderland away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Sunderland are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Jan 2024, ended Hull City 1–0 Sunderland — a Hull City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 62% versus Sunderland 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 56% | Sunderland 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.50 xG and Sunderland 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.015 / defence 1.106 | Sunderland attack 1.246 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 0.962. Sunderland have an above-average attack rating of 1.246, which lifts their away xG to 1.33. Data: built from Hull City's last 55 games and Sunderland's last 55.
Result probabilities: Hull City 40% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 32%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.50 | Draw 3.63 | Sunderland 3.09. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sunderland (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Hull City's last 10 home games and Sunderland's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hull City 60% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, matchday 10 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 40% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Hull City 1.50 / Sunderland 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.015 / def 1.106 | Sunderland attack 1.246 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.444 / away 0.962 • Poisson stance: Hull City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sunderland xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Sunderland FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Sunderland kick off?
Hull City vs Sunderland kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 20 October 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Sunderland?
Hull City 0 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Hull City vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Sunderland part of?
Hull City vs Sunderland is a Championship fixture (matchday 10) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 40% chance of winning, Sunderland a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hull City and Sunderland will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hull City vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hull City's attack at 1.01x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.25x) against Hull City's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 55 games and Sunderland's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
40%
2.50
28%
3.63
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.82
1.33
Sunderland xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
7%
13.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Sunderland Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Hull City and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hull City and 1.33 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hull City come into this having played 55 games, going 22W 16D 17L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.36 PPG from 55 outings (22W 9D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Hull City against 1.36 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hull City's home form reads 9W 11D 7L across their last 27 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 27 away games (8W 6D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.27 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
Hull City (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Hull City vs Sunderland Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 22W 16D 17L in their last 55 games (1.49 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 22W 9D 24L in their last 55 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Sunderland away?
Hull City's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.41 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Hull City or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sunderland in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hull City
2
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Sunderland H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Sunderland?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 2, Sunderland have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Sunderland last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2025: Sunderland 0-1 Hull City.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 59%, Sunderland 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hull City) and 41% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Sunderland Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Sunderland matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Hull City's recent matches and 48% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hull City and Sunderland matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Hull City's recent games and 41% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Sunderland matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Hull City's recent matches and 70% of Sunderland's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat Hull City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Hull City 0-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.50 xG and Sunderland 1.33 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hull City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.01 / defence 1.11 against Sunderland attack 1.25 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 40% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 32%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sunderland win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 56%, Sunderland 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Sunderland's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.49 PPG, Sunderland 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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