Hull City 0-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 40%, yet in-form Sunderland provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hull City vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hull City and Sunderland meet at The MKM Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hull City have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City at The MKM Stadium this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sunderland's overall Championship record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Sunderland are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Hull City 1W, Sunderland 1W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Hull City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 62% versus Sunderland 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 56% | Sunderland 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.50 xG and Sunderland 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.015 / defence 1.106 | Sunderland attack 1.246 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 0.962. Sunderland have an above-average attack strength of 1.246 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Hull City games / 55 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 40% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 32%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Sunderland 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sunderland (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 60% | Sunderland 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 40% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Hull City 1.50 / Sunderland 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.015 / def 1.106 | Sunderland attack 1.246 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.444 / away 0.962 • Poisson stance: Hull City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sunderland xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Sunderland kick off?
Hull City vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Sunderland?
Hull City 0 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Hull City vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Sunderland part of?
Hull City vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 40% chance of winning, Sunderland a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hull City and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Sunderland?
Record (4 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 2 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Hull City and Sunderland in?
Hull City (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Sunderland (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Hull City vs Sunderland?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hull City's attack at 1.01x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.25x) against Hull City's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
40%
2.50
28%
3.63
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.82
1.33
Sunderland xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
7%
13.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Hull City and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hull City and 1.33 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hull City come into this having played 55 games, going 22W 16D 17L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.36 PPG from 55 outings (22W 9D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Hull City against 1.36 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hull City's home form reads 9W 11D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.11 points per game from 27 outings (8W 6D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.27 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 22W 16D 17L in their last 55 games (1.49 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 22W 9D 24L in their last 55 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Sunderland away?
Hull City's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.41 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Hull City or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sunderland in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hull City
2
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Hull City have won 2, Sunderland have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 Hull City.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 59%, Sunderland 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hull City) and 41% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Hull City's recent matches and 48% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Hull City's recent games and 41% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Sunderland tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat Hull City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Hull City 0-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.50 xG and Sunderland 1.33 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hull City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.01 / defence 1.11 against Sunderland attack 1.25 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 40% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 32%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sunderland win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 56%, Sunderland 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Sunderland's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.49 PPG, Sunderland 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.