Cardiff 5-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 40%, yet in-form Plymouth provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cardiff vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Plymouth make the trip to Cardiff City Stadium to face Cardiff in Championship, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Cardiff (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff at Cardiff City Stadium this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Cardiff are significantly better at Cardiff City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth's overall Championship record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Plymouth are 0.90 PPG clear of Cardiff in recent Championship fixtures (1.40 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cardiff lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 1–3 with Plymouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cardiff — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Plymouth — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 46% versus Plymouth 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 47% | Plymouth 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.09 xG and Plymouth 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.701 / defence 1.169 | Plymouth attack 0.740 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 0.975. Cardiff's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Cardiff games / 55 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 40% | Draw 33% | Plymouth 27%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Plymouth 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plymouth (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cardiff if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 40% | Plymouth 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 40% | Draw 33% | Plymouth 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Cardiff 1.09 / Plymouth 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.701 / def 1.169 | Plymouth attack 0.740 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.459 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Plymouth xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Plymouth kick off?
Cardiff vs Plymouth kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Plymouth?
Cardiff 5 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is Cardiff vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Plymouth part of?
Cardiff vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 40% chance of winning, Plymouth a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cardiff and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Plymouth?
Record (2 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 1 | Plymouth 1W.
What form are Cardiff and Plymouth in?
Cardiff (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Plymouth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Cardiff vs Plymouth?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cardiff's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (0.74x) against Cardiff's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
40%
2.50
33%
3.04
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Cardiff xG
Total xG
1.93
0.84
Plymouth xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.84 for Plymouth, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cardiff's recent record stands at 20W 7D 28L from 55 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 25L across 55 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Cardiff against 1.13 for Plymouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 11W 3D 13L from 27 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plymouth's away record stands at 3W 8D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cardiff are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.25 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 20W 7D 28L in their last 55 games (1.22 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 16W 14D 25L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Plymouth away?
Cardiff's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.33 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cardiff won 5-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cardiff have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cardiff
2
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Plymouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, Plymouth have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Plymouth 5-2 Cardiff.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 41%, Plymouth 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Cardiff) and 44% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 37% of games; Plymouth in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Cardiff's recent matches and 48% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Cardiff's recent games and 44% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Plymouth tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cardiff run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Plymouth 5-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.09 xG and Plymouth 0.84 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Cardiff beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plymouth landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.70 / defence 1.17 against Plymouth attack 0.74 / defence 1.06, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 40% | Draw 33% | Plymouth 27%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 47%, Plymouth 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Plymouth's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.22 PPG, Plymouth 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.