Derby 0-1 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Preston encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derby and Preston meet at Pride Park in Championship, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 September 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Derby have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Pride Park, Derby have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Preston (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Preston have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Preston have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Derby lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with Derby winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Preston half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 49% versus Preston 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 41% | Preston 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.31 xG and Preston 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.066 / defence 1.189 | Preston attack 0.851 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.163. Data: 51 Derby games / 51 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 40% | Draw 27% | Preston 33%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Preston 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Derby 30% | Preston 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 40% | Draw 27% | Preston 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Derby 1.31 / Preston 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.066 / def 1.189 | Preston attack 0.851 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Derby (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Preston xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Preston kick off?
Derby vs Preston kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Preston?
Derby 0 - 1 Preston.
Where is Derby vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Preston part of?
Derby vs Preston is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 40% chance of winning, Preston a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Derby and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Preston?
Record (4 meetings): Derby 2W | Draws 2 | Preston 0W.
What form are Derby and Preston in?
Derby (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Preston (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Derby's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Preston's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Preston's attack (0.85x) against Derby's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.71
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Derby xG
Total xG
2.49
1.18
Preston xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Derby and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Derby and 1.18 for Preston, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby come into this having played 51 games, going 14W 13D 24L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.14 PPG from 51 outings (12W 22D 17L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Preston, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Derby against 1.14 for Preston. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Derby's home form reads 9W 6D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 0.72 points per game from 25 outings (3W 9D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Preston's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.06 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preston in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Early Season
Preston
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Preston in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 14W 13D 24L in their last 51 games (1.08 PPG), while Preston have gone 12W 22D 17L in their last 51 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Preston away?
Derby's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.32 PPG; Preston away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Preston — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Derby
2
Draws
1
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Preston?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Preston have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Preston 0-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Preston?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 36%, Preston 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Derby) and 52% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Derby have failed to score in 36% of games; Preston in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Derby's recent matches and 64% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Derby's recent games and 52% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Preston tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Preston in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Preston defy the odds to beat Derby 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston beat Derby 0-1 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.31 xG and Preston 1.18 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Derby fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.07 / defence 1.19 against Preston attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 40% | Draw 27% | Preston 33%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Preston win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 41%, Preston 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Preston's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.08 PPG, Preston 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preston win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Preston (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.