Burnley 1-1 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs West Brom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Turf Moor plays host to Burnley versus West Brom in Championship, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Tuesday 11 March 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Burnley (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.10 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.10 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 9 clean sheets from 10 games (90%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Turf Moor. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
West Brom's overall Championship record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
West Brom's away record: 0W 6D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Burnley. A 0.70 PPG lead over West Brom (2.20 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Burnley 1W, West Brom 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
West Brom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 43% versus West Brom 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 43% | West Brom 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.33 xG and West Brom 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 1.031 / defence 0.532 | West Brom attack 0.960 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.029. Burnley's defence rating of 0.532 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Burnley games / 82 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 57% | Draw 29% | West Brom 14%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 1.75 | Draw 3.45 | West Brom 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Burnley (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — West Brom's lower xG of 0.53 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 20% | West Brom 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 57% | Draw 29% | West Brom 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 30% | xG Burnley 1.33 / West Brom 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 1.031 / def 0.532 | West Brom attack 0.960 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Burnley (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.53
West Brom xG
30%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs West Brom kick off?
Burnley vs West Brom kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 11 March 2025 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs West Brom?
Burnley 1 - 1 West Brom.
Where is Burnley vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs West Brom part of?
Burnley vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 57% chance of winning, West Brom a 14% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Burnley and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and West Brom?
Record (3 meetings): Burnley 1W | Draws 2 | West Brom 0W.
What form are Burnley and West Brom in?
Burnley (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. West Brom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Burnley's attack rating (1.03) and West Brom's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (0.96x) against Burnley's defence (0.53x) — and the away total comes out at 0.53.
These ratings are built from 36/82 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.1%), 2-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
57%
1.77
29%
3.44
14%
6.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Burnley xG
Total xG
1.85
0.53
West Brom xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
6.93
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.30
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
33%
2.99
4%
26.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 1 | 20.8 | 10.9 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 7.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Burnley and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Burnley and 0.53 for West Brom, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs West Brom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burnley come into this having played 74 games, going 25W 23D 26L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, West Brom sit at 1.55 PPG from 74 outings (30W 25D 19L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Burnley against 1.55 for West Brom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Burnley's home form reads 12W 12D 13L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, West Brom have taken 1.11 points per game from 37 outings (9W 14D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of West Brom's season.
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.35 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; West Brom in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
West Brom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and West Brom in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 25W 23D 26L in their last 74 games (1.32 PPG), while West Brom have gone 30W 25D 19L in their last 74 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or West Brom away?
Burnley's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.30 PPG; West Brom away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Burnley or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, West Brom in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against West Brom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Burnley
3
Draws
1
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and West Brom?
From 5 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, West Brom have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when West Brom 3-1 Burnley.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 40%, West Brom 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Burnley) and 51% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play West Brom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Burnley's recent matches and 68% of West Brom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Burnley's recent games and 51% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and West Brom tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, West Brom in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley and West Brom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley and West Brom finished level at 1-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.33 xG and West Brom 0.53 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.03 / defence 0.53 against West Brom attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 57% | Draw 29% | West Brom 14%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 43%, West Brom 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
West Brom's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.32 PPG, West Brom 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.