Zbrojovka Brno 1-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zbrojovka Brno at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zlin make the trip to ADAX INVEST Arena to face Zbrojovka Brno in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Zbrojovka Brno (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at ADAX INVEST Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zlin's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zlin have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Zbrojovka Brno, 0.80 for Zlin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Zbrojovka Brno register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Zlin in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Zbrojovka Brno 1W, Zlin 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 3–2 with Zbrojovka Brno winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Zbrojovka Brno goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Zlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zbrojovka Brno 67% and Zlin 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zbrojovka Brno 81% | Zlin 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 1.69 xG and Zlin 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.973 / defence 1.293 | Zlin attack 0.927 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.370. Data: 21 Zbrojovka Brno games / 51 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 39% | Draw 25% | Zlin 37%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Zlin 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zbrojovka Brno as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zbrojovka Brno if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zbrojovka Brno 70% | Zlin 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: ADAX INVEST Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 39% | Draw 25% | Zlin 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Zbrojovka Brno 1.69 / Zlin 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.973 / def 1.293 | Zlin attack 0.927 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Zbrojovka Brno (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Zlin xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What was the final score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin?
Zbrojovka Brno 1 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 39% chance of winning, Zlin a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zbrojovka Brno the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin?
Record (1 meetings): Zbrojovka Brno 1W | Draws 0 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin in?
Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Zlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zbrojovka Brno's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.93x) against Zbrojovka Brno's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
39%
2.59
25%
4.05
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
3.33
1.64
Zlin xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
7%
13.37
7%
14.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.64 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zbrojovka Brno come into this having played 21 games, going 7W 4D 10L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.81 PPG from 21 outings (3W 8D 10L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Zbrojovka Brno against 0.81 for Zlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Zbrojovka Brno's home form reads 3W 2D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.50 points per game from 10 outings (0W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zbrojovka Brno come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.10 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zbrojovka Brno have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Zlin in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 7W 4D 10L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Zlin have gone 3W 8D 10L in their last 21 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zbrojovka Brno at home or Zlin away?
Zbrojovka Brno's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zbrojovka Brno at home: 1.10 PPG; Zlin away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zbrojovka Brno have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Zlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Zbrojovka Brno
2
Draws
0
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin?
From 3 meetings on record, Zbrojovka Brno have won 1, Zlin have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 28 May 2023, when Zbrojovka Brno 0-0 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin?
Zbrojovka Brno have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Zbrojovka Brno, 70% for Zlin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Zbrojovka Brno and 70% for Zlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zbrojovka Brno play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Zbrojovka Brno's games and 70% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Zbrojovka Brno's matches and 70% of Zlin's.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin tend to score early?
Zbrojovka Brno have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Zlin in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin finished level at 1-1 at ADAX INVEST Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zbrojovka Brno 1.69 xG and Zlin 1.64 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.97 / defence 1.29 against Zlin attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zbrojovka Brno 39% | Draw 25% | Zlin 37%, with Zbrojovka Brno to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zbrojovka Brno 81%, Zlin 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zbrojovka Brno 1.19 PPG, Zlin 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.