Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zbrojovka Brno host Teplice at in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno's home record at : 4W 1D 2L from 7 Czech Liga appearances (1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Teplice — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Teplice have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zbrojovka Brno at 1.60 PPG versus Teplice's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Zbrojovka Brno have won 1, Teplice 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Zbrojovka Brno winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zbrojovka Brno in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Teplice in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zbrojovka Brno 46% versus Teplice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zbrojovka Brno 54% | Teplice 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 1.17 xG and Teplice 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.982 / defence 1.083 | Teplice attack 1.158 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.286. Data: 13 Zbrojovka Brno games / 43 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 26% | Draw 29% | Teplice 45%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Teplice 2.22. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zbrojovka Brno 57% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 26% | Draw 29% | Teplice 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Zbrojovka Brno 1.17 / Teplice 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.982 / def 1.083 | Teplice attack 1.158 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Teplice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Teplice xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 26% chance of winning, Teplice a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice?
Record (4 meetings): Zbrojovka Brno 1W | Draws 3 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice in?
Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Teplice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zbrojovka Brno's attack at 0.98x the league average against Teplice's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Zbrojovka Brno's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
26%
3.91
29%
3.44
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
2.79
1.61
Teplice xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
5%
19.60
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.61 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zbrojovka Brno come into this having played 13 games, going 6W 2D 5L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (6W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zbrojovka Brno on 1.54 PPG, Teplice on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zbrojovka Brno's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 2.00 points per game from 6 outings (4W 0D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.62 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 6W 2D 5L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while Teplice have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zbrojovka Brno at home or Teplice away?
Teplice's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zbrojovka Brno at home: 1.67 PPG; Teplice away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Zbrojovka Brno or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zbrojovka Brno have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Teplice in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Zbrojovka Brno
3
Draws
0
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice?
From 4 meetings on record, Zbrojovka Brno have won 1, Teplice have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Teplice 0-2 Zbrojovka Brno.
Who has won more matches between Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice?
Zbrojovka Brno have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zbrojovka Brno see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zbrojovka Brno 50%, Teplice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Zbrojovka Brno) and 50% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Teplice in 33%; Zbrojovka Brno have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zbrojovka Brno play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Zbrojovka Brno's recent matches and 50% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Zbrojovka Brno's recent games and 50% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice tend to score early?
Zbrojovka Brno have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Teplice in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.