Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zbrojovka Brno at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zbrojovka Brno host Teplice at in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have gone 5W 1D 2L from 8 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno's home record at : 4W 0D 1L from 5 Czech Liga appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Teplice — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Teplice have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zbrojovka Brno at 2.00 PPG versus Teplice's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zbrojovka Brno register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Teplice in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Zbrojovka Brno have won 1, Teplice 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Zbrojovka Brno winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zbrojovka Brno in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Teplice in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zbrojovka Brno 50% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zbrojovka Brno 50% | Teplice 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 1.61 xG and Teplice 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.032 / defence 0.993 | Teplice attack 1.128 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.262. Data: 8 Zbrojovka Brno games / 38 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 41% | Draw 26% | Teplice 33%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Teplice 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zbrojovka Brno as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zbrojovka Brno offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zbrojovka Brno 60% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 41% | Draw 26% | Teplice 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Zbrojovka Brno 1.61 / Teplice 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.032 / def 0.993 | Teplice attack 1.128 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Zbrojovka Brno (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Teplice xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 41% chance of winning, Teplice a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zbrojovka Brno the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice?
Record (4 meetings): Zbrojovka Brno 1W | Draws 3 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice in?
Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Teplice (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zbrojovka Brno's attack at 1.03x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Zbrojovka Brno's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
41%
2.41
26%
3.87
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
3.03
1.41
Teplice xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
7%
15.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.41 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zbrojovka Brno come into this having played 8 games, going 5W 1D 2L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zbrojovka Brno on 2.00 PPG, Teplice on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zbrojovka Brno's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Zbrojovka Brno are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zbrojovka Brno come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.88 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 8 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while Teplice have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zbrojovka Brno at home or Teplice away?
Zbrojovka Brno's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zbrojovka Brno at home: 3.00 PPG; Teplice away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Zbrojovka Brno
3
Draws
0
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice?
From 4 meetings on record, Zbrojovka Brno have won 1, Teplice have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Teplice 0-2 Zbrojovka Brno.
Who has won more matches between Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice?
Zbrojovka Brno have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zbrojovka Brno at 67%, Teplice at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Zbrojovka Brno and 67% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zbrojovka Brno keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Teplice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zbrojovka Brno play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Zbrojovka Brno's games and 67% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Zbrojovka Brno's matches and 67% of Teplice's.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice tend to score early?
Zbrojovka Brno have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Teplice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.