Teplice vs Baník Ostrava – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Baník Ostrava at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Teplice — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Teplice have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Baník Ostrava have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against Teplice's 3 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Teplice winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Baník Ostrava have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 50% versus Baník Ostrava 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 42% | Baník Ostrava 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.65 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.943 / defence 0.978 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.755 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Baník Ostrava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Teplice games / 42 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 52% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 19%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Baník Ostrava 5.26. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Baník Ostrava lead the H2H ledger, but Teplice carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 50% | Baník Ostrava 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 52% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Teplice 1.65 / Baník Ostrava 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.943 / def 0.978 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.755 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Teplice (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Baník Ostrava xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
Where is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 52% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Teplice and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Record (10 meetings): Teplice 3W | Draws 1 | Baník Ostrava 6W.
What form are Teplice and Baník Ostrava in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.94x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
52%
1.93
29%
3.46
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.60
0.95
Baník Ostrava xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
4%
26.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Teplice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Teplice and 0.95 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 16W 15D 17L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 12W 10D 26L from 48 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.31 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 6D 14L from 24 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Teplice are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 0.98 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 16W 15D 17L in their last 48 games (1.31 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 12W 10D 26L in their last 48 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Teplice's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.29 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Teplice or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Teplice and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Teplice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Baník Ostrava won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
1
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Teplice 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 42%, Baník Ostrava 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Teplice) and 46% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 33% of games; Baník Ostrava in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Teplice's recent matches and 42% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Teplice's recent games and 46% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.