Teplice 0-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Baník Ostrava at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Teplice — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Baník Ostrava — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Teplice have won 1, Baník Ostrava 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 63% and Baník Ostrava 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 59% | Baník Ostrava 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.92 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.626 / defence 0.728 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.095 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.804 / away 1.214. Teplice's attack strength of 0.626 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Teplice's defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Teplice games / 41 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 32% | Draw 33% | Baník Ostrava 35%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Baník Ostrava 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 50% | Baník Ostrava 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 32% | Draw 33% | Baník Ostrava 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Teplice 0.92 / Baník Ostrava 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.626 / def 0.728 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.095 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.804 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Baník Ostrava xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Teplice 0 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 32% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Teplice and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Record (3 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 0 | Baník Ostrava 2W.
What form are Teplice and Baník Ostrava in?
Teplice (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.63x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
32%
3.10
33%
3.05
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Teplice xG
Total xG
1.88
0.97
Baník Ostrava xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 14.7 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Teplice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Teplice and 0.97 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 14W 13D 19L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 16W 12D 18L from 46 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.20 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (8W 9D 5L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 9D 9L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Teplice are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.54 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Baník Ostrava in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 14W 13D 19L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 16W 12D 18L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Teplice's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.50 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Teplice and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Teplice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Baník Ostrava won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
1
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Teplice 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 54%, Baník Ostrava 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Teplice) and 50% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Teplice's games and 68% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Teplice's recent games and 50% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Teplice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.92 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.97 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.63 / defence 0.73 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 32% | Draw 33% | Baník Ostrava 35%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 59%, Baník Ostrava 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.20 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.