Baník Ostrava 1-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Pardubice travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Baník Ostrava have posted 7W 1D 2L at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Baník Ostrava are significantly better at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Baník Ostrava, 1 for Pardubice and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2023, ended 2–4 with Pardubice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Pardubice in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 60% versus Pardubice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 60% | Pardubice 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 2.52 xG and Pardubice 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.099 / defence 0.765 | Pardubice attack 1.053 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.756 / away 1.134. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Baník Ostrava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Baník Ostrava's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Baník Ostrava games / 40 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 72% | Draw 16% | Pardubice 12%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 1.39 | Draw 6.25 | Pardubice 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Baník Ostrava (72%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Baník Ostrava 40% | Pardubice 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 72% | Draw 16% | Pardubice 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 55% | xG Baník Ostrava 2.52 / Pardubice 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.099 / def 0.765 | Pardubice attack 1.053 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.756 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Pardubice xG
55%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 72% chance of winning, Pardubice a 12% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
Record (4 meetings): Baník Ostrava 2W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 1W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Pardubice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 1.10x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
72%
1.38
16%
6.19
12%
8.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
3.44
0.91
Pardubice xG
1.38
72%
Home win
6.19
16%
Draw
8.70
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
8%
12.49
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
1%
108.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 0.91 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 11D 18L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 1.09 PPG from 45 outings (14W 7D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.31 PPG, Pardubice on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 12W 2D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Baník Ostrava are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.91 points per game from 22 outings (6W 2D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.04 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 16W 11D 18L in their last 45 games (1.31 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 14W 7D 24L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Pardubice away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.73 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 6, Pardubice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Baník Ostrava 1-4 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 54%, Pardubice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Baník Ostrava and 54% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pardubice in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 50% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 54% of Pardubice's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Pardubice tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava and Pardubice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava and Pardubice finished level at 1-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 2.52 xG and Pardubice 0.91 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.10 / defence 0.77 against Pardubice attack 1.05 / defence 1.31, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 72% | Draw 16% | Pardubice 12%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 60%, Pardubice 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.31 PPG, Pardubice 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.