Sparta Praha 3-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 80% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
epet ARENA plays host to Sparta Praha versus Karviná in Czech Liga (matchday 6). Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Sparta Praha (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sparta Praha's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Karviná's record over their last 5 games: 1W 1D 3L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
The form ledger tips toward Sparta Praha. A 1.50 PPG lead over Karviná (2.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Sparta Praha's last 10 home games and Karviná's last 5 games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Sparta Praha's games and 100% of Karviná's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Sparta Praha, 0 for Karviná and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Dec 2021, ended Sparta Praha 2–1 Karviná — a Sparta Praha win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sparta Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; they lead at the break 80% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sparta Praha 60% and Karviná 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 40% | Karviná 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 3.14 xG and Karviná 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.442 / defence 0.999 | Karviná attack 0.877 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.126. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack rating of 1.442 — their 3.14 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Karviná's defence rating of 1.324 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sparta Praha's projected output up. Data: built from Sparta Praha's last 35 games and Karviná's last 5.
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 80% | Draw 12% | Karviná 8%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.26 | Draw 8.25 | Karviná 11.93. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (80%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 4.12. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.12 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (3.14 / 0.99) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sparta Praha's last 10 home games and Karviná's last 5 games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sparta Praha 70% (last 10 home games) | Karviná 100% (last 5 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 6 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 80% | Draw 12% | Karviná 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% (Under 22%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Sparta Praha 3.14 / Karviná 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.442 / def 0.999 | Karviná attack 0.877 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.14
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Karviná xG
60%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Karviná FAQs
What time does Sparta Praha vs Karviná kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Karviná kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 27 August 2023 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Karviná?
Sparta Praha 3 - 1 Karviná.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Karviná part of?
Sparta Praha vs Karviná is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 6) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 80% chance of winning, Karviná a 8% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sparta Praha and Karviná will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sparta Praha vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.44x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 3.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.88x) against Sparta Praha's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Sparta Praha's last 35 games and Karviná's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 8.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
80%
1.26
12%
8.25
8%
11.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.14
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
4.12
0.99
Karviná xG
1.26
80%
Home win
8.25
12%
Draw
11.93
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
4%
23.06
Win to Nil
30%
3.38
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sparta Praha vs Karviná Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 3.14 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.99 for Karviná, a combined total of 4.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Karviná?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Sparta Praha have picked up 2.60 PPG on a 4W 1D 0L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Karviná's form line: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, 0.80 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Karviná.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Karviná in 100%.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Early Season
Karviná
Early Season
Sparta Praha (Home) vs Karviná (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sparta Praha
Early Season
Karviná
Early Season
❓ Sparta Praha vs Karviná Form FAQs
What form are Sparta Praha and Karviná in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 games (2.60 PPG), while Karviná have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Sparta Praha or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Karviná in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Sparta Praha and Karviná, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won Karviná 0-3 Sparta Praha on 10 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Sparta Praha
0
Draws
1
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Sparta Praha vs Karviná H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Karviná?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sparta Praha have won 7, Karviná have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Karviná last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: Sparta Praha 2-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Karviná?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Sparta Praha, 100% for Karviná — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Sparta Praha and 80% for Karviná. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Karviná Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sparta Praha and Karviná matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sparta Praha's games and 100% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sparta Praha and Karviná matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Sparta Praha's matches and 80% of Karviná's.
Do Sparta Praha and Karviná matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 80% of Karviná's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Karviná 3-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 3.14 xG and Karviná 0.99 xG, a combined 4.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.44 / defence 1.00 against Karviná attack 0.88 / defence 1.32, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 80% | Draw 12% | Karviná 8%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 80%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 40%, Karviná 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Karviná's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Karviná shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.