Teplice 1-1 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Teplice face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Sparta Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Teplice have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sparta Praha (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sparta Praha are 0.70 PPG clear of Teplice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.50 vs 1.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Sparta Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 1–4 with Sparta Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 67% and Sparta Praha 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 64% | Sparta Praha 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.89 xG and Sparta Praha 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.750 / defence 0.790 | Sparta Praha attack 1.478 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.268. Teplice's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sparta Praha's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.478 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Teplice's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Teplice games / 34 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 23% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 51%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Sparta Praha 1.96. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 60% | Sparta Praha 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 23% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Teplice 0.89 / Sparta Praha 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.750 / def 0.790 | Sparta Praha attack 1.478 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Sparta Praha xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Teplice vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Teplice 1 - 1 Sparta Praha.
Where is Teplice vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Sparta Praha part of?
Teplice vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 23% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Teplice and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sparta Praha?
Record (4 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 3W.
What form are Teplice and Sparta Praha in?
Teplice (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.48x) against Teplice's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
23%
4.39
26%
3.79
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.37
1.48
Sparta Praha xG
4.39
23%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
5%
19.28
21%
4.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.8 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Teplice and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Teplice and 1.48 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 13W 10D 16L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sparta Praha's form line: 27W 9D 3L from 39 games, 2.31 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (8W 7D 4L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 13W 5D 1L from 19 away games — 2.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.28 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 13W 10D 16L in their last 39 games (1.26 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 27W 9D 3L in their last 39 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.63 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.32 PPG.
Have Teplice or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Teplice
4
Draws
6
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 0, Sparta Praha have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Teplice 0-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 58%, Sparta Praha 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Teplice) and 47% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 47%; Teplice have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Teplice's recent matches and 47% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Teplice's recent games and 47% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Sparta Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 5, as Teplice and Sparta Praha drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.89 xG and Sparta Praha 1.48 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.75 / defence 0.79 against Sparta Praha attack 1.48 / defence 0.73, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 23% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 51%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 64%, Sparta Praha 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.