Sparta Praha 3-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 45% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Sparta Praha welcome Hradec Králové to epet ARENA in Czech Liga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 9 February 2025 at 17:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Sparta Praha have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Hradec Králové — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Hradec Králové away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Sparta Praha) versus 1.50 (Hradec Králové). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

Sparta Praha hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 0 for Hradec Králové and 0 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended Sparta Praha 2–0 Hradec Králové — a Sparta Praha win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Sparta Praha and goals — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 62% versus Hradec Králové 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 62% | Hradec Králové 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.44 xG and Hradec Králové 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.150 / defence 1.023 | Hradec Králové attack 0.915 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.167. Data: built from Sparta Praha's last 50 games and Hradec Králové's last 50.

Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 45% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 29%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.22 | Draw 3.80 | Hradec Králové 3.50. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Sparta Praha 5 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sparta Praha 80% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 20% (last 10 away games).

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