Hradec Králové 2-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hradec Králové face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Bohemians 1905 at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 16 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Hradec Králové at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bohemians 1905's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.40 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Hradec Králové have won 1, Bohemians 1905 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Dec 2024, ended Hradec Králové 3–0 Bohemians 1905 — a Hradec Králové win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 41% versus Bohemians 1905 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 39% | Bohemians 1905 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.06 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.947 / defence 0.813 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.927 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.174. Bohemians 1905 bring a tight defence (rating 0.730, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Hradec Králové's projected output down. Data: built from Hradec Králové's last 51 games and Bohemians 1905's last 51.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 1905 30%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.56 | Draw 3.21 | Bohemians 1905 3.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Hradec Králové's last 10 home games and Bohemians 1905's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hradec Králové 30% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 1905 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Hradec Králové 1.06 / Bohemians 1905 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.947 / def 0.813 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.927 / def 0.730 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Bohemians 1905 xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 FAQs
What time does Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Hradec Králové 2 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 39% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.95x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hradec Králové's last 51 games and Bohemians 1905's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
39%
2.56
31%
3.21
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
1.95
0.88
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.88 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 21W 14D 21L from 56 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 16W 19D 21L across 56 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.38 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 14W 6D 7L from their last 27 home games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bohemians 1905's away record stands at 8W 9D 10L across their last 27 away games, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.07 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Hradec Králové (Home) vs Bohemians 1905 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hradec Králové
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 Form FAQs
What form are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 21W 14D 21L in their last 56 games (1.38 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 16W 19D 21L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.78 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from February 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Dec 2024, when Hradec Králové won Bohemians 1905 0-3 Hradec Králové.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hradec Králové have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: Bohemians 1905 0-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 48%, Bohemians 1905 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Hradec Králové) and 48% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 56% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 48% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 67% of Bohemians 1905's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 22, as Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.06 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.88 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.95 / defence 0.81 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.93 / defence 0.73, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 1905 30%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 39%, Bohemians 1905 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.38 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.