Slovan Liberec 1-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 66%, yet the head-to-head data favours Teplice — this Slovan Liberec vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Teplice make the trip to Stadion u Nisy to face Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga (Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

Slovan Liberec (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Slovan Liberec's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Slovan Liberec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Teplice have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Teplice's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.20 for Teplice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Teplice have the stronger record — 3 wins to Slovan Liberec's 0, with 1 draw.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2024, ended Slovan Liberec 0–2 Teplice — a Teplice win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Teplice have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading

Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 58% versus Teplice 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 57% | Teplice 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Slovan Liberec surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Teplice have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 2.28 xG and Teplice 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.192 / defence 0.908 | Teplice attack 0.843 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Teplice's defence rating of 1.251 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Slovan Liberec's projected output up. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 60 games and Teplice's last 60.

Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 66% | Draw 20% | Teplice 14%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.52 | Draw 4.92 | Teplice 7.11. The model has a clear lean to Slovan Liberec (66%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Slovan Liberec's last 10 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 50% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 50% (last 10 away games).

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