Hradec Králové 3-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Hradec Králové welcome Sigma Olomouc to Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga (Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Hradec Králové — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Hradec Králové's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Sigma Olomouc stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Sigma Olomouc away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Hradec Králové carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Hradec Králové's games and 70% of Sigma Olomouc's (from Hradec Králové's last 10 home games and Sigma Olomouc's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Hradec Králové have won 0, Sigma Olomouc 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2024, ended Hradec Králové 0–0 Sigma Olomouc — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 50% versus Sigma Olomouc 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 47% | Sigma Olomouc 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.58 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.947 / defence 0.878 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.014 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: built from Hradec Králové's last 60 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 60.

Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 26%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.16 | Draw 3.66 | Sigma Olomouc 3.79. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hradec Králové 60% (last 10 home games) | Sigma Olomouc 70% (last 10 away games).

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