Slovan Liberec 0-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 meet at Stadion U Nisy in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 October 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion U Nisy — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.40 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Slovan Liberec lead 2W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Slovan Liberec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 48% versus Bohemians 1905 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 45% | Bohemians 1905 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.23 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.000 / defence 0.878 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.962 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.243. Data: 40 Slovan Liberec games / 39 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 38% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 30%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Bohemians 1905 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 50% | Bohemians 1905 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion U Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 38% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.23 / Bohemians 1905 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.000 / def 0.878 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.962 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Bohemians 1905 xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Stadion U Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion U Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 38% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905?
Record (8 meetings): Slovan Liberec 2W | Draws 3 | Bohemians 1905 3W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 1.00x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.96x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
38%
2.62
32%
3.10
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.28
1.05
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.05 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 16W 12D 14L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 13W 12D 17L from 42 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.21 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (9W 7D 5L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 7W 5D 9L from 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.05 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 16W 12D 14L in their last 42 games (1.43 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.62 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-1 on 4 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovan Liberec
5
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 2, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 43%, Bohemians 1905 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Slovan Liberec) and 38% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 38% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 38% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slovan Liberec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 finished level at 0-0 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.23 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.05 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.00 / defence 0.88 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 38% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 30%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 45%, Bohemians 1905 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.43 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.