Slovácko 0-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slovácko (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slovácko face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Slovácko welcome Teplice to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Teplice have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Slovácko have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Slovácko hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Teplice, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Slovácko and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Slovácko in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Teplice in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 43% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 43% | Teplice 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.11 xG and Teplice 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.857 / defence 0.697 | Teplice attack 0.892 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.247. Slovácko's defence rating of 0.697 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Slovácko games / 40 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 41% | Draw 36% | Teplice 23%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.44 | Draw 2.78 | Teplice 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 50% | Teplice 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 41% | Draw 36% | Teplice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Slovácko 1.11 / Teplice 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.857 / def 0.697 | Teplice attack 0.892 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Teplice xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Teplice kick off?
Slovácko vs Teplice kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Teplice?
Slovácko 0 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Slovácko vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Teplice part of?
Slovácko vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 41% chance of winning, Teplice a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Slovácko and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Teplice?
Record (4 meetings): Slovácko 3W | Draws 1 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Slovácko and Teplice in?
Slovácko (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Teplice (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Slovácko vs Teplice?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.86) and Teplice's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
41%
2.43
36%
2.81
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Slovácko xG
Total xG
1.89
0.78
Teplice xG
2.43
41%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
8%
13.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.78 for Teplice, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko's recent record stands at 15W 12D 17L from 44 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 21L across 44 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 1.30 PPG, Teplice on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 7W 7D 7L from 21 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 6W 2D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.05 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Teplice in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 15W 12D 17L in their last 44 games (1.30 PPG), while Teplice have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Teplice away?
Slovácko's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.33 PPG; Teplice away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Teplice in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovácko's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovácko
2
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 4, Teplice have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Teplice 1-1 Slovácko.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 48%, Teplice 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Slovácko) and 62% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Slovácko have failed to score in 29% of games; Teplice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Slovácko's recent matches and 57% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Slovácko's recent games and 62% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Teplice tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Teplice in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Slovácko 0-2 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.11 xG and Teplice 0.78 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Slovácko fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Teplice outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.86 / defence 0.70 against Teplice attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 41% | Draw 36% | Teplice 23%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Teplice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 43%, Teplice 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Teplice's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.30 PPG, Teplice 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.