Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec meet at Andruv Stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc at Andruv Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Slovan Liberec have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slovan Liberec have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 3 for Slovan Liberec and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Slovan Liberec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 52% versus Slovan Liberec 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 57% | Slovan Liberec 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.12 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.111 / defence 1.109 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.963 / defence 0.739. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.235. Slovan Liberec's defence strength of 0.739 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Sigma Olomouc games / 40 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 31% | Draw 29% | Slovan Liberec 40%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Slovan Liberec 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Slovan Liberec 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Andruv Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 31% | Draw 29% | Slovan Liberec 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.12 / Slovan Liberec 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.111 / def 1.109 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.963 / def 0.739 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Slovan Liberec xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Andruv Stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 0 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Andruv Stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 31% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec?
Record (9 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 3W | Draws 3 | Slovan Liberec 3W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (1.11) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.96x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
31%
3.23
29%
3.48
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.44
1.32
Slovan Liberec xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
8%
12.07
13%
7.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.32 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 20W 9D 15L from 44 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 15L across 44 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.48 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 11W 5D 5L from 21 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 9W 5D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.25 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Slovan Liberec in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 9D 15L in their last 44 games (1.57 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.81 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 1-4 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
3
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, Slovan Liberec have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 38%, Slovan Liberec 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sigma Olomouc) and 48% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Slovan Liberec in 33%; Slovan Liberec in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 48% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 48% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sigma Olomouc defy the odds to beat Slovan Liberec 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Slovan Liberec 1-0 at Andruv Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.12 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.32 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovan Liberec landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.11 / defence 1.11 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.96 / defence 0.74, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 31% | Draw 29% | Slovan Liberec 40%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sigma Olomouc win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 57%, Slovan Liberec 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.57 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.