Sigma Olomouc 1-3 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hradec Králové travel to Andrův stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga (Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hradec Králové stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Hradec Králové away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 1 for Hradec Králové and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2024, ended Sigma Olomouc 1–3 Hradec Králové — a Hradec Králové win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sigma Olomouc trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Hradec Králové trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 60% versus Hradec Králové 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 57% | Hradec Králové 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 0.93 xG and Hradec Králové 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.807 / defence 1.166 | Hradec Králové attack 0.728 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Hradec Králové bring a tight defence (rating 0.754, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sigma Olomouc's projected output down. Hradec Králové's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 60 games and Hradec Králové's last 60.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 29% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 38%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 3.43 | Draw 3.01 | Hradec Králové 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Hradec Králové's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 50% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 29% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Sigma Olomouc 0.93 / Hradec Králové 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.807 / def 1.166 | Hradec Králové attack 0.728 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Hradec Králové xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové FAQs
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 3 Hradec Králové.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové is a Czech Liga fixture (Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 29% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.81x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sigma Olomouc's last 60 games and Hradec Králové's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
29%
3.43
33%
3.01
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.02
1.09
Hradec Králové xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.5 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.09 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 21W 19D 25L from 65 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 23W 16D 26L across 65 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.26 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 11W 9D 12L from their last 32 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 9W 10D 13L across their last 32 away games, a 1.16 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.14 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Sigma Olomouc (Home) vs Hradec Králové (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové Form FAQs
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 19D 25L in their last 65 games (1.26 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 23W 16D 26L in their last 65 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Hradec Králové away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.31 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Nov 2026, when Hradec Králové won Hradec Králové 5-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
5
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, Hradec Králové have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Hradec Králové 5-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 59%, Hradec Králové 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sigma Olomouc) and 44% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 47% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 44% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 66% of Hradec Králové's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Sigma Olomouc 1-3 at Andrův stadion, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 0.93 xG and Hradec Králové 1.09 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.81 / defence 1.17 against Hradec Králové attack 0.73 / defence 0.75, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 29% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 38%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 57%, Hradec Králové 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.26 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.