Plzen 1-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Plzen welcome FK Jablonec to Doosan Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 July 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen at Doosan Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Doosan Arena this season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, FK Jablonec have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Plzen 2.40 PPG, FK Jablonec 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Plzen have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 7 past contests while FK Jablonec have managed just 0 wins.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 4–1 with Plzen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 56% versus FK Jablonec 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 56% | FK Jablonec 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.53 xG and FK Jablonec 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.166 / defence 1.006 | FK Jablonec attack 0.950 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.372. Data: 31 Plzen games / 31 FK Jablonec games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Plzen 42% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 33%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | FK Jablonec 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 70% | FK Jablonec 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 42% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Plzen 1.53 / FK Jablonec 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.166 / def 1.006 | FK Jablonec attack 0.950 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Plzen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.31
FK Jablonec xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Doosan Arena.
What was the final score in Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Plzen 1 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Plzen vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs FK Jablonec part of?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 42% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Plzen and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
Record (7 meetings): Plzen 6W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Plzen and FK Jablonec in?
Plzen (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plzen's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
42%
2.36
25%
4.01
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.84
1.31
FK Jablonec xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
7%
14.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Plzen and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Plzen and 1.31 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen's recent record stands at 24W 5D 7L from 36 games, a 2.14 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 19W 7D 10L across 36 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plzen on 2.14 PPG, FK Jablonec on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 13W 2D 3L from 18 games — 2.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 8W 3D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.69 scored and 0.94 conceded. Plzen's scoring rate against FK Jablonec's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; FK Jablonec in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 24W 5D 7L in their last 36 games (2.14 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 19W 7D 10L in their last 36 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or FK Jablonec away?
Plzen's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.28 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Plzen or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, FK Jablonec have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 56%, FK Jablonec 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Plzen) and 50% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 33%; FK Jablonec in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Plzen's recent matches and 44% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Plzen's recent games and 50% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen and FK Jablonec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 2, as Plzen and FK Jablonec drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.53 xG and FK Jablonec 1.31 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.17 / defence 1.01 against FK Jablonec attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 42% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 33%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 56%, FK Jablonec 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 2.14 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.