Plzen 2-0 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Dukla Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plzen and Dukla Praha meet at Doosan Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 December 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Plzen have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Doosan Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dukla Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Plzen's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Plzen 2W, Dukla Praha 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Dukla Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Plzen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Dukla Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 57% versus Dukla Praha 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 55% | Dukla Praha 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.79 xG and Dukla Praha 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.204 / defence 1.168 | Dukla Praha attack 0.724 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.298. Data: 48 Plzen games / 48 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 53% | Draw 25% | Dukla Praha 22%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Dukla Praha 4.55. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 70% | Dukla Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 53% | Draw 25% | Dukla Praha 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Plzen 1.79 / Dukla Praha 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.204 / def 1.168 | Dukla Praha attack 0.724 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Plzen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Dukla Praha xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Plzen vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Doosan Arena.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Dukla Praha?
Plzen 2 - 0 Dukla Praha.
Where is Plzen vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Dukla Praha part of?
Plzen vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 53% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Plzen and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Dukla Praha?
Record (3 meetings): Plzen 2W | Draws 0 | Dukla Praha 1W.
What form are Plzen and Dukla Praha in?
Plzen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Plzen's attack at 1.20x the league average against Dukla Praha's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dukla Praha's attack (0.72x) against Plzen's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
53%
1.89
25%
4.08
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.89
1.10
Dukla Praha xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
4%
26.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Plzen and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Plzen and 1.10 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plzen's recent record stands at 31W 10D 12L from 53 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dukla Praha, meanwhile, have gone 9W 20D 24L across 53 games — 0.89 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dukla Praha heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 17W 5D 5L from 27 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dukla Praha's away record stands at 3W 11D 13L across 27 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plzen are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.89 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 31W 10D 12L in their last 53 games (1.94 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 9W 20D 24L in their last 53 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Dukla Praha away?
Plzen's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.07 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Plzen or Dukla Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Dukla Praha in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Plzen
0
Draws
1
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Dukla Praha?
From 4 meetings on record, Plzen have won 3, Dukla Praha have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Plzen 2-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Dukla Praha?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 59%, Dukla Praha 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Plzen) and 41% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dukla Praha in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Plzen's recent matches and 48% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Plzen's recent games and 41% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Dukla Praha 2-0 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.79 xG and Dukla Praha 1.10 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dukla Praha landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.20 / defence 1.17 against Dukla Praha attack 0.72 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 53% | Draw 25% | Dukla Praha 22%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 55%, Dukla Praha 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.