Pardubice 0-1 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Slavia Praha meet at CFIG Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 September 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 4W 2D 4L at CFIG Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Slavia Praha have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Slavia Praha arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across the last 3 meetings, Slavia Praha have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Pardubice's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Slavia Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 45% versus Slavia Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 45% | Slavia Praha 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.82 xG and Slavia Praha 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.700 / defence 0.938 | Slavia Praha attack 1.117 / defence 0.717. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.113. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.717 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Pardubice games / 37 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 26% | Draw 30% | Slavia Praha 44%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Slavia Praha 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 30% | Slavia Praha 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 26% | Draw 30% | Slavia Praha 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Pardubice 0.82 / Slavia Praha 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.700 / def 0.938 | Slavia Praha attack 1.117 / def 0.717 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Slavia Praha xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Pardubice vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Pardubice 0 - 1 Slavia Praha.
Where is Pardubice vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Slavia Praha part of?
Pardubice vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 26% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Pardubice and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slavia Praha?
Record (3 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 0 | Slavia Praha 3W.
What form are Pardubice and Slavia Praha in?
Pardubice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (0.70) and Slavia Praha's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.12x) against Pardubice's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
26%
3.88
30%
3.30
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Pardubice xG
Total xG
1.99
1.17
Slavia Praha xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
8%
12.47
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 16.0 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.17 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 6D 22L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.31 PPG from 42 outings (30W 7D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Pardubice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pardubice's home form reads 7W 4D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 1.65 points per game from 20 outings (9W 6D 5L). That's a step down from their 2.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.69 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Slavia Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 14W 6D 22L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 30W 7D 5L in their last 42 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.25 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 7-0 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Pardubice
1
Draws
9
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Slavia Praha 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 40%, Slavia Praha 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Pardubice) and 50% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Pardubice's recent matches and 55% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Pardubice's recent games and 50% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Pardubice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Pardubice 0-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.82 xG and Slavia Praha 1.17 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.70 / defence 0.94 against Slavia Praha attack 1.12 / defence 0.72, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 26% | Draw 30% | Slavia Praha 44%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 45%, Slavia Praha 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.