Karviná 0-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 41%, yet in-form Teplice provide a compelling counter-argument — this Karviná vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Městský Stadión to face Karviná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Karviná have collected 0.57 PPG across 7 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 1D 5L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 2.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.43 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Městský Stadión, Karviná have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.57 — Karviná are significantly better at Městský Stadión than their overall form suggests.
Teplice (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Teplice are the stronger side — 0.63 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.57). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Karviná register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Teplice in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Karviná 0W, Teplice 1W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karviná 100% and Teplice 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 86% | Teplice 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.60 xG and Teplice 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.944 / defence 1.210 | Teplice attack 1.065 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.122. Data: 7 Karviná games / 37 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 41% | Draw 24% | Teplice 35%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Teplice 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Teplice (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 100% | Teplice 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 41% | Draw 24% | Teplice 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Karviná 1.60 / Teplice 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.944 / def 1.210 | Teplice attack 1.065 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Karviná (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Teplice xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Teplice kick off?
Karviná vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Teplice?
Karviná 0 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Karviná vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Teplice part of?
Karviná vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 41% chance of winning, Teplice a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Karviná and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Teplice?
Record (3 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 2 | Teplice 1W.
What form are Karviná and Teplice in?
Karviná (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 2.43 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.94x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (1.06x) against Karviná's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
41%
2.41
24%
4.17
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Karviná xG
Total xG
3.05
1.45
Teplice xG
2.41
41%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
7%
14.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Karviná and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Karviná and 1.45 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Karviná have picked up 0.57 PPG on a 1W 1D 5L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice's form line: 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Teplice are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Karviná.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Karviná have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.57 PPG overall — Karviná are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Teplice have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 0.86 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Teplice in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Teplice have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Teplice away?
Karviná's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.33 PPG; Teplice away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won 4-1 on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Karviná
4
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Teplice?
From 9 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Teplice have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Teplice 2-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Karviná, 100% for Teplice — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Karviná and 100% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Karviná's games and 100% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Karviná's matches and 100% of Teplice's.
Do Karviná and Teplice tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Teplice in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat Karviná 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Karviná 0-1 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.60 xG and Teplice 1.45 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Karviná fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.94 / defence 1.21 against Teplice attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 41% | Draw 24% | Teplice 35%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 86%, Teplice 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Teplice's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Teplice arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.57. That form edge translated into the three points. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.