Pardubice 2-0 Chrudim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Chrudim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CFIG Arena plays host to Pardubice versus Chrudim in Czech Liga, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Pardubice's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at CFIG Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.24 xG and Chrudim 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.793 / defence 1.000 | Chrudim attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.203. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Pardubice games / 0 Chrudim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 41% | Draw 29% | Chrudim 30%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Chrudim 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pardubice at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Chrudim | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 41% | Draw 29% | Chrudim 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Pardubice 1.24 / Chrudim 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.793 / def 1.000 | Chrudim attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Chrudim xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Chrudim kick off?
Pardubice vs Chrudim kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 28 May 2025 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Chrudim?
Pardubice 2 - 0 Chrudim.
Where is Pardubice vs Chrudim being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Chrudim part of?
Pardubice vs Chrudim is a Relegation Round fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Chrudim?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 41% chance of winning, Chrudim a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Chrudim?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Pardubice and Chrudim will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Chrudim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Chrudim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pardubice and Chrudim in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Pardubice home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (0.79) and Chrudim's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chrudim's attack (0.85x) against Pardubice's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
41%
2.44
29%
3.48
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.26
1.02
Chrudim xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Chrudim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Chrudim expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.02 for Chrudim, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Chrudim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Pre-Season
Chrudim
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pardubice
0
Draws
1
Chrudim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Chrudim?
From 2 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 1, Chrudim have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Chrudim last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when Chrudim 1-0 Pardubice.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Chrudim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chrudim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Chrudim 2-0 at CFIG Arena, Relegation Round, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.24 xG and Chrudim 1.02 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chrudim landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.79 / defence 1.00 against Chrudim attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 41% | Draw 29% | Chrudim 30%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.