Pardubice 1-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 meet at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Pardubice (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Pardubice have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Pardubice against 1.20 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Pardubice, 4 for Bohemians 1905 and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 8 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with Pardubice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 38% versus Bohemians 1905 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 44% | Bohemians 1905 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.40 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.916 / defence 1.381 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.916 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.209. Data: 35 Pardubice games / 35 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 35% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 41%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 1905 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Pardubice 40% | Bohemians 1905 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 35% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Pardubice 1.40 / Bohemians 1905 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.916 / def 1.381 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.916 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Bohemians 1905 xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Pardubice 1 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 35% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Bohemians 1905?
Record (8 meetings): Pardubice 3W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 4W.
What form are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.92x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.92x) against Pardubice's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
35%
2.88
25%
4.07
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.92
1.53
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.88
35%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
8%
13.28
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.53 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pardubice's recent record stands at 6W 8D 25L from 39 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 17L across 39 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bohemians 1905 by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 6W 4D 9L from 19 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.67 PPG overall — Pardubice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bohemians 1905's away record stands at 6W 4D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.03 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 6W 8D 25L in their last 39 games (0.67 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 10D 17L in their last 39 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Pardubice's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.16 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
2
Draws
4
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-2 Pardubice.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pardubice see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 42%, Bohemians 1905 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Pardubice) and 42% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Pardubice keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pardubice have failed to score in 37% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Pardubice's recent matches and 37% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Pardubice's recent games and 42% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 7, as Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.40 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.53 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.92 / defence 1.38 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.92 / defence 1.12, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 35% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 41%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 44%, Bohemians 1905 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians 1905 arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.