Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pardubice host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Arnosta Kostala this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pardubice 1.10 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Pardubice, 5 for Baník Ostrava and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 2–1 with Pardubice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 67% versus Baník Ostrava 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 56% | Baník Ostrava 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.82 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 1.022 / defence 0.969 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.803 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.162. Baník Ostrava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Pardubice games / 40 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 59% | Draw 23% | Baník Ostrava 18%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Baník Ostrava 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Pardubice (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pardubice as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 70% | Baník Ostrava 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 59% | Draw 23% | Baník Ostrava 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Pardubice 1.82 / Baník Ostrava 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 1.022 / def 0.969 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.803 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Baník Ostrava xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
Where is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 59% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pardubice and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
Record (10 meetings): Pardubice 3W | Draws 2 | Baník Ostrava 5W.
What form are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 1.02x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.33
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.73
0.91
Baník Ostrava xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
3%
34.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.8 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Pardubice and 0.91 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pardubice's recent record stands at 15W 10D 18L from 43 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 24L across 43 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.28 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 7W 6D 8L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 4W 4D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pardubice are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.00 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 15W 10D 18L in their last 43 games (1.28 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 11W 8D 24L in their last 43 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Pardubice's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.29 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pardubice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when Baník Ostrava won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pardubice
2
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Baník Ostrava 1-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 71%, Baník Ostrava 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Pardubice) and 52% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Pardubice's recent matches and 38% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Pardubice's recent games and 52% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.