Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Baník Ostrava (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Baník Ostrava.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pardubice host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Arnosta Kostala this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Baník Ostrava are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Baník Ostrava, who boast 6 victories compared to 2 for Pardubice.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 4–1 with Pardubice winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Baník Ostrava have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 71% versus Baník Ostrava 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 55% | Baník Ostrava 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.17 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.814 / defence 1.098 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.893 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Data: 36 Pardubice games / 35 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 32% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 41%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Baník Ostrava 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 70% | Baník Ostrava 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 32% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Pardubice 1.17 / Baník Ostrava 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.814 / def 1.098 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.893 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Baník Ostrava xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
Where is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 32% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pardubice and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
Record (10 meetings): Pardubice 2W | Draws 2 | Baník Ostrava 6W.
What form are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.81x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
32%
3.10
27%
3.75
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.53
1.36
Baník Ostrava xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
8%
12.01
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.36 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pardubice's recent record stands at 12W 9D 17L from 38 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 20L across 38 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.18 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 5W 6D 8L from 19 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 4W 4D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pardubice are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.05 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 11W 7D 20L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Pardubice's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.11 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
2
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Baník Ostrava 1-4 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 74%, Baník Ostrava 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pardubice) and 42% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Pardubice's games and 42% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Pardubice's recent games and 42% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.