Pardubice 2-3 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pardubice host Baník Ostrava at CFIG Arena in Czech Liga (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pardubice stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Pardubice's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Pardubice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Baník Ostrava — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Baník Ostrava are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Pardubice, 2 for Baník Ostrava and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Mar 2024, ended Pardubice 0–1 Baník Ostrava — a Baník Ostrava win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 46% versus Baník Ostrava 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 44% | Baník Ostrava 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.95 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.741 / defence 0.979 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.920 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.263. Pardubice's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Pardubice's last 41 games and Baník Ostrava's last 41.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 28% | Draw 34% | Baník Ostrava 38%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.56 | Draw 2.92 | Baník Ostrava 2.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pardubice 40% (last 10 home games) | Baník Ostrava 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 13 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 28% | Draw 34% | Baník Ostrava 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Pardubice 0.95 / Baník Ostrava 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.741 / def 0.979 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.920 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Baník Ostrava xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava FAQs
What time does Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Pardubice 2 - 3 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 13) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 28% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pardubice and Baník Ostrava will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.74x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pardubice's last 41 games and Baník Ostrava's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
28%
3.56
34%
2.92
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.09
1.14
Baník Ostrava xG
3.56
28%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 14.1 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.14 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pardubice's recent record stands at 13W 8D 25L from 46 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 19W 10D 17L across 46 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-W-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baník Ostrava by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 6W 5D 11L from their last 22 home games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 9W 5D 8L across their last 22 away games, a 1.45 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pardubice are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.50 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Pardubice (Home) vs Baník Ostrava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pardubice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava Form FAQs
What form are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 13W 8D 25L in their last 46 games (1.02 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 19W 10D 17L in their last 46 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Baník Ostrava's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.05 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pardubice have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Sep 2022, when Baník Ostrava won Baník Ostrava 3-0 Pardubice.
Pardubice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pardubice
2
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pardubice have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Baník Ostrava 1-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Baník Ostrava see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 46%, Baník Ostrava 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Pardubice) and 54% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 41% of games; Baník Ostrava in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pardubice and Baník Ostrava matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Pardubice's recent matches and 50% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Pardubice's recent games and 54% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Baník Ostrava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Pardubice's recent matches and 59% of Baník Ostrava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Pardubice 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Pardubice 2-3 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.95 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.14 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.74 / defence 0.98 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 28% | Draw 34% | Baník Ostrava 38%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 44%, Baník Ostrava 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.