Bohemians 1905 0-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bohemians 1905 (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Bohemians 1905 face Pardubice.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Form

Bohemians 1905 (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Pardubice have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.

Pardubice away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Bohemians 1905's favour (1.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record in our data favours Bohemians 1905, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Pardubice — Pardubice have 1 win, with 0 draws.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 25 May 2024, ended Bohemians 1905 0–1 Pardubice — a Pardubice win.

The head-to-head data gives Bohemians 1905 an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 57% versus Pardubice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 51% | Pardubice 45%). Note also that Pardubice surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Bohemians 1905 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 47% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.68 xG and Pardubice 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.012 / defence 1.281 | Pardubice attack 0.897 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.227. Pardubice's defence rating of 1.216 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians 1905's projected output up. Bohemians 1905's defence rating of 1.281 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pardubice's projected output up. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 42 games and Pardubice's last 42.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 42% | Draw 27% | Pardubice 31%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.37 | Draw 3.66 | Pardubice 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Pardubice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 80% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights