Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mlada Boleslav (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mlada Boleslav face Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav host Zlin at Lokotrans Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Lokotrans Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Mlada Boleslav have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Mlada Boleslav: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Zlin, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Mlada Boleslav and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Zlin in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 62% versus Zlin 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 60% | Zlin 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 2.21 xG and Zlin 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.103 / defence 0.834 | Zlin attack 1.020 / defence 1.429. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.429 — this is suppressing Mlada Boleslav's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Mlada Boleslav games / 36 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 61% | Draw 20% | Zlin 19%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Zlin 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Zlin 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 61% | Draw 20% | Zlin 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Mlada Boleslav 2.21 / Zlin 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.103 / def 0.834 | Zlin attack 1.020 / def 1.429 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Zlin xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Lokotrans Arena.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 61% chance of winning, Zlin a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
Record (9 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 5W | Draws 3 | Zlin 1W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Zlin (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.10) and Zlin's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
61%
1.64
20%
5.05
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.39
1.18
Zlin xG
1.64
61%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
11%
9.14
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
2%
47.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.18 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 12W 15D 13L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zlin's form line: 10W 8D 22L from 40 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.27 PPG, Zlin on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 3W 4D 12L from 19 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.12 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 12W 15D 13L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Zlin have gone 10W 8D 22L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Zlin away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.26 PPG; Zlin away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
From 9 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Zlin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 63%, Zlin 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Mlada Boleslav) and 47% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Zlin in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 53% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 47% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Zlin tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Zlin in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.